The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference this morning. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shen Danyang reported on business operations from January to September. Shen Danyang said that September’s foreign trade data should be viewed comprehensively. Although foreign trade growth in the third quarter has improved significantly compared with the first half of the year, we should also clearly see that the current external situation facing my country’s foreign trade is still severe and complex.
Customs data shows that in the first three quarters of 2013, my country’s import and export reached 19.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Among them, exports increased by 8% and imports increased by 7.3%. In September, exports were US$185.64 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell into negative territory and was lower than market expectations.
In this regard, Shen Danyang said that negative export growth should be viewed comprehensively. Overall, although foreign trade growth in the third quarter has improved significantly compared with the first half of the year, and may still maintain a steady growth trend in the fourth quarter, we should still be aware that my country’s foreign trade development is facing a severe external situation. Although the markets of developed countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan have rebounded, the economic growth of emerging market countries has slowed down significantly, and phenomena such as capital outflows, currency depreciation, increased inflation, and economic growth decline are common. Recently, both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have lowered their forecasts for global economic growth in 2013. Under such a situation, our export growth to emerging markets has dropped significantly recently, especially in September.
Shen Danyang pointed out that in the next few months, my country’s foreign trade will still face the severe test of the obvious insufficient import demand from emerging markets. At the same time, the rise in the comprehensive cost of exports caused by factors such as the appreciation of the renminbi and rising labor costs continues to plague enterprises. . Judging from the recent data survey of more than 1,900 key foreign trade companies across the country by the Ministry of Commerce, corporate export orders have experienced some relapses recently after a brief recovery in the early stage. It is worth noting that export orders to emerging economies have been particularly volatile, and business confidence has also seen some fluctuations.
Shen Danyang also pointed out that positive factors should also be seen. Since my country introduced a series of policies and measures to promote foreign trade development in July, the level of trade facilitation has been improved, the increase in the comprehensive cost of foreign trade has been alleviated, and it has given rise to foreign trade development. Inject new impetus. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce has recently issued documents on promoting the development of cross-border e-commerce, and comprehensive services and support policies for foreign trade enterprises will soon be introduced. The above measures are very conducive to the development of foreign trade.
When talking about the future direction of foreign trade, Shen Danyang said that it is expected that national exports will still show a slight growth trend in the next two to three months. At the same time, the recent stabilization and recovery of the domestic economy will continue to significantly drive the growth of imports, and the Ministry of Commerce remains confident in achieving the expected goals of stable development, transformation and upgrading of foreign trade throughout the year.
