According to the Vietnam Daily Express report on June 11, experts from the U.S. Fulbright Project calculated the United Nations materials and showed that last year, 10.2 billion US dollars of textiles and leather shoes were exported from China to Vietnam without statistics. 6.6 billion US dollars of goods are finished goods, that is, ready-made garments.
Vietnam-China trade relations have been a hot topic for decades, especially as trade leverage is often tilted against Vietnam. Recently, this issue has become a hot topic in public opinion. On the occasion of the convening of the Vietnamese Congress, Vietnamese Congress representative Mui Hui Xin (from Binh Duong Province) raised an anxious question, which shocked the Vietnamese Congress representatives: 20 billion US dollars of Chinese goods were exported to Vietnam but were not involved in Vietnam. Department statistics. This deviation is also the main reason why the deficit figure mentioned in the reports of China and Vietnam is as high as 15 billion US dollars.
Vietnam has to import many raw and auxiliary materials for the textile industry from China, but the data discrepancy between the two countries is still very large.
It is worth noting that most of the goods Vietnam imports from China are daily consumer goods, which was not mentioned in the Vietnamese report. Mr. Ruan Xuancheng, Fulbright Economic Education Project Manager, quoted a United Nations report (the data in the report is similar to China’s data) and said that Vietnam’s US$10.2 billion imports of textiles and shoes (including raw materials and spinning threads) from China were not included in the statistics. , of which US$6.6 billion is finished products, that is, ready-made garments.
Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh is puzzled that although Vietnam processes high-quality textiles and exports them to wealthy countries, Vietnam still has to smuggle imported textiles from China.
In addition, the balance of metals and metal products reached US$3 billion, mainly various types of utensils used for eating and drinking and other alloy products. In addition, Vietnam’s report only recorded RMB 500 million worth of agricultural products imported from China, but China’s reported figure reached US$2.4 billion.
Mr. Ruan Xuancheng said, “The $2.4 billion worth of goods imported from China are mainly vegetables, fruits and processed foods, but Vietnam has no statistics. Vietnamese consumers will be worried about this.”
The statistics of Vietnam’s agricultural products, textiles, and metal products imported from China have large discrepancies between the two countries. This table is a data table on the amount of Vietnam’s imports from China (unit is US$1 billion) calculated by Ruan Xancheng based on United Nations trade statistics. The blue is the data of Vietnam and the green is the data of China. Column 1 from the left of the icon is agricultural products, column 4 is textiles and shoes, and column 5 is metal products. (Icon source: Vietnamese media)
In response to a question from representatives of the Vietnamese Congress, Vietnam’s Minister of Planning and Investment admitted that there were in fact discrepancies in the import and export data between the two countries. Vietnam’s Minister of Planning and Investment explained that the reason is caused by the different statistics and registration methods of imported and exported goods between the two countries, such as calculation based on FOB price or CIF price. Different calculation methods are chosen, and the results are also different. In addition, whether small-value commodities imported through border trade are included in the calculation will also make a difference. Vietnam’s Minister of Planning and Investment also cited that not only China, but also Vietnam’s import and export data with Singapore, Russia, and Portugal have experienced deviations in statistics.
Economic expert Pei Zheng has many years of experience in the field of statistics. He also believes that deviations in statistical statistics on imports and exports from country A to country B will occur in almost any country with mutual trade relations. For example, there are also deviations between China and the United States every year. However, Mr. Pei Zheng also noticed that the amount of deviation between Vietnam and China is getting larger and larger.
According to official Chinese statistics, China’s trade surplus with Vietnam reached US$18 billion in 2011, US$4.5 billion higher than the data recorded by the General Administration of Customs of Vietnam. As of 2013 and 2014, the deviation amount increased to $8 billion and $1.5 billion respectively. 2011201220132014 China’s exports to Vietnam (Chinese data) 29,134,248,663,7 Vietnam’s imports from China (Vietnamese data) 24,628,836,943,7
Unit: 1 billion US dollars. Data source: Vietnam Customs, China Customs
Especially in 2014, Chinese records show that China’s exports to Vietnam reached US$63.7 billion, but Vietnam only recorded US$43.7 billion. If China’s data is correct, then the equivalent of US$20 billion “did not know where it went.” . At the same time, this kind of deviation has also appeared in previous years. In 2011, the deviation was only US$4.5 billion, in 2012 it was US$5.4 billion, and in 2013 it was US$11.7 billion.
Mr. Pei Zheng said, “The deviation of up to 20 billion is a sudden change that makes almost everyone who cares about this issue dizzy.”
Tran Dinh Tin, President of the Vietnam Academy of Economics, believes that the relevant Vietnamese agencies are too “bold” and the figures for billions of dollars of goods are simply underreported, which makes it impossible for regulators to recognize the truth of the situation.
The phenomenon of import and export smuggling in order to evade tariffs is also one of the reasons that causes deviations in import and export trade data. Chen Tingtian believes that “the deviation in import and export trade volume is caused by smuggling. This problem is very serious. This is of course not just a problem in 2014, but also a problem in the economic system for many years.”
In addition, Vietnamese economic expert Bui Zheng also reported that certain “technical” problems are also one of the reasons for the reduction in import and export commodity statistics, especially those that bear import taxes or consumption taxes that are particularly high.��Some products. Mr. Pei Zheng said that 2014 was a year of positive changes in Vietnam’s production. Therefore, a large number of raw materials and machinery and equipment were input to serve production, which took the opportunity to reduce prices even more.
Economic expert Pei Zheng said that 20 billion US dollars worth of Chinese goods entering Vietnam’s territory have not been recorded by Vietnamese functional departments, which will greatly weaken Vietnam’s commodity competitiveness, because “Made in China” goods do not have to pay taxes and can take advantage of their low prices. Race around Vietnam and compete with domestic Vietnamese goods.
To prevent this situation, Mr. Pei Zheng said that the Vietnamese government should formulate more effective tariff barriers, strengthen customs management, and avoid smuggling and commercial fraud. Mr. Pei Zheng suggested, “Vietnam’s domestic enterprises must fight ‘shirtless’. The import tax rate is only a nominal protection. We must consider how to use the nominal protective tax rate to maximize the benefits of production.”
At the same time, Vietnam must readjust its economic structure. According to Mr. Pei Zheng, if the agricultural processing sector is mainly processing, and almost all the raw materials required for processing are imported, it will be very difficult to break away from dependence on China or any other market. In particular, when Vietnam joins the free trade agreement, Vietnam will have no advantage in competing with China or other countries that produce raw materials. The phenomenon of ‘washing’ C/O (commodity certificate of origin) will appear. For example, China imports goods through Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises and then exports the goods to Vietnam. The products are initially processed in Vietnam. When the products If the place of origin is changed to Vietnam and then exported to a third country, Vietnam will have no profit.
Mr. Bui Zheng believes that “if it wants to break away from dependence on foreign countries, it must change itself. Accordingly, Vietnam must identify influential cutting-edge industries, stimulate economic development, limit imports and minimize the impact on the environment.”