Recently, Kearney Management Consulting released the 2015 Global Retail Development Index Report (GRDI). In the global retail development index list released this time, Asian countries occupy the majority of seats, surpassing other continents in the ranking. Among them, China ranks first on the index list, with total retail market sales expected to grow to US$8 trillion by 2022 (twice the size of the US retail market). India ranks 15th.
The report believes that although China’s GDP growth rate dropped to the lowest value in 25 years in 2014 – 7.4%, the retail market growth rate of 11.6% is enough to make China perform quite well in front of other developing markets. .
He Xiaoqing, a partner in Kearney’s consumer goods and retail business, believes: “Rising income levels, continued urbanization, a large consumer group keen on shopping, and China’s active transformation to a consumption-driven growth model will drive China’s The retail market will continue to grow over the next few years.”
At the same time, He Xiaoqing also pointed out that e-commerce also plays a decisive role in the growth of China’s retail market. Leading e-commerce companies such as Alibaba and JD.com have not only opened new channels for consumers in big cities, but are also actively committed to providing better services to small cities and rural areas. Some big brand brick-and-mortar stores are opening more in these areas. Multiple stores.
Kearney predicts that if China’s retail market develops in this trend, it will be expected to overtake the United States by 2018 and become the world’s largest retail market.
India’s retail market is expected to reach US$1.3 trillion in 2020
It is understood that the current Indian retail market is worth US$925 billion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5.8% during 2010-14. A report released by Kearney Management Consulting stated that the reformist government under Modi has proposed ambitious development goals and plans to improve India’s ease of doing business ranking from the current 142nd to 50th in the world in the next two years. . Currently, consumer and investor confidence in India is showing signs of recovery.
The report predicts that the Indian retail market will continue to grow, with the market value expected to reach US$1.3 trillion in 2020. Kearney Management Consulting said that in the latest year’s Global Retail Development Index list, India’s ranking has risen five places to 15th.
The report also pointed out that in the next five years, the Indian economy will maintain strong growth, which means that in the Indian market, single-brand retail, cash and carry stores and e-commerce will usher in great development. The turning point in the development of physical retail stores will come with the opening up of foreign direct investment into the multi-brand retail industry, but this move will not be implemented in the short term.
According to the report, Wal-Mart will open a new store in Agra this year and plans to open 50 more wholesale stores in India in the next five years on top of the existing 20 wholesale stores.
In addition, the 2015 Global Retail Development Index also specifically includes research on the prospects of luxury goods consumption in developing countries. The study analyzes 15 leading luxury brands and their business scope in the top 30 countries in the index. The analysis results show that the development of luxury goods in emerging markets presents three-level trends. These trends have different impacts on brands that are committed to entering emerging markets or expanding their business in emerging markets.
Since first publishing in 2001, Kearney has ranked retail markets in developing countries around the world. The index analyzes 25 macroeconomic factors and specific retail variables to help retailers develop successful global strategies and explore investment opportunities in emerging markets.