In April this year, my country’s textile and apparel exports continued to show double-digit declines. This decline caused my country’s cumulative exports of textiles and apparel to decrease by 2.7% year-on-year from January to April, becoming the first negative year-on-year growth in recent years.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs of China show that in US dollars, my country’s textile and clothing exports in April this year were US$19.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%; of which textile exports fell by 10.8% year-on-year, and clothing exports fell by 20.8% year-on-year. In RMB terms, my country’s textile and apparel exports in April were 122.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 16%. In U.S. dollars, my country’s total textile and apparel exports in the first four months were US$79.64 billion, down 2.7% year-on-year, of which textile exports fell by 0.5% and clothing exports fell by 4.2%. Calculated in RMB, my country’s cumulative export volume of textiles and apparel was 488.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%.
Comparing the year-on-year data from January to April in the past five years, we can see that this is the first time that my country’s textile and apparel export growth has experienced cumulative negative growth. From January to April 2011, my country’s textile and clothing exports totaled US$68.5 billion, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 27%; from January to April 2013, my country’s textile and clothing exports totaled US$80.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. From January to April 2014, my country’s textile and apparel exports amounted to US$81.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Even when the domestic economy slowed down and demand in major markets continued to be weak, my country’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$68.82 billion from January to April 2012, still maintaining a slight growth of 0.5%.
Comparing the single-month data in April 2013, 2014 and 2015, my country’s textile and apparel trade volume was US$22.28 billion, US$23.75 billion and US$19.88 billion respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 18.5%, 6.6% and -16.3% respectively. The single-month export performance of US$19.88 billion in April this year was higher than the US$18.8 billion exported in April 2012 and the US$19.874 billion exported in April 2011. However, due to single-month declines in three of the first four months of this year, , but failed to turn the cumulative data positive.
In the first three months of this year, my country’s textile and apparel exports maintained a slight growth after experiencing large ups and downs. In the first three months, my country’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$59.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which was 14.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first two months of this year. When analyzing the export situation in the first quarter, some analysts believe that due to the Spring Festival factors, my country’s textile and apparel exports fell significantly in January, rebounded sharply in February, and were basically no longer affected by seasonal factors, showing a sharp decline in March. It shows that the growth rate of my country’s textile and clothing exports has slowed down significantly, showing that clothing exports are facing greater pressure. The double-digit decline in April further confirmed the intensity and persistence of the pressure.
Although there is great pressure, it is still too early to judge the turning point of my country’s textile and apparel export trade. Some people in the industry believe that the rise and fall of the export amount is directly related to the fluctuation of the price of textile raw materials. The decline in the price of raw materials represented by cotton has a direct impact on the total export amount, which is one of the factors contributing to the decline in the total export amount. In addition, it is not ruled out that export orders will continue to flow to ASEAN. The specific export data and market situation must be analyzed based on the changes in export quantities of different categories of products.
Industry insiders previously predicted that my country’s textile and apparel exports may improve in the second half of 2015, and the performance of China’s textile and apparel export market during the year will depend on whether the country will introduce stimulus policies at the investment level.