In 2013, the economic growth of emerging economies generally slowed down, and their role in driving the global economy tended to weaken. After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, emerging economies represented by the BRICS countries maintained rapid economic growth and once became the main force driving the world economy. However, under the influence of various factors such as the continued weakening of market demand in developed countries, the disturbance of international capital changes, and the prominent deep-seated structural contradictions in each country, emerging economies are also unable to survive alone, and their economic growth rates have dropped significantly. Among them, some countries are overly dependent on the export of resources such as energy and raw materials, but have been seriously impacted by the decline in energy prices in the international market; some countries have serious fiscal and current account twin deficits and urgently need to accelerate structural adjustment and fiscal austerity; some countries The country has relied on exports for a long time. When faced with insufficient international market demand, it is difficult to form a sufficient domestic demand market in the short term, severely restricting the industrial economy. Of course, there are also those who, after careful consideration, take the initiative to take decisive action, pay more attention to the quality and efficiency of economic development from the perspective of sustainable development, and intentionally slow down the development speed in order to adjust the economic structure.
Since 2011, the low-speed growth of the world economy and the deepening of the European debt crisis have severely suppressed global import demand, and international trade growth has become weak. The international trade situation in 2014 was still not optimistic, especially the shrinkage of imports from developed countries, which dragged down global trade growth. According to statistics from the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade in goods increased by only 2.5% in 2013. Exports from developed economies increased by 1.5% and imports decreased by 0.1%. Exports from developing economies and the CIS increased by 3.6% and imports increased. 5.8%. In the context of the fragile recovery of the global economy and the overall downturn in international trade, some countries have vigorously promoted trade protectionism in order to alleviate employment pressure and corporate difficulties, which has also hindered the recovery process of world trade to a certain extent. Among them, green trade barriers have emerged Get into high gear.
One issue that deserves the attention of all parties is that the growth rate of international trade has been lower than the growth rate of the world economy for two consecutive years, and free trade is facing serious challenges. After World War II, and since the world entered economic globalization, it has almost become a law that the growth rate of international trade exceeds the growth rate of economic growth. Until 2011, the world economic situation still followed this law, and trade growth has always remained close to the economic growth rate. Twice the level, but now this law has been broken. Some experts analyze that the reason is that the development of emerging markets has encountered obstacles, the manufacturing industry has shrunk, and the service industry has turned to vigorous development, but this may not be the best policy; technological development has prompted enterprises to reduce outsourcing of production, reducing trade demand, and cross-border investment has declined sharply; Enterprise scale has become a competitive advantage, and small and medium-sized enterprises are in a difficult situation. Large enterprises can dominate in various fields, promote trade protection, and suppress free trade. Many economies are trapped in internal political instability, which not only provides fertile ground for trade protectionism, but also It has no time to take into account the overall development of international free trade.
Since 2002, thanks to its official membership of the WTO, China’s international trade has developed by leaps and bounds against the background of accelerated global trade liberalization and major changes in the industrial economic pattern. As a country with obvious comparative advantages and a complete industrial chain China’s textile industry has maintained rapid export growth for many years. According to statistics, China’s textile and apparel exports accounted for 15.4% of the global market in 2002, and by 2012 it had reached 36%. Since 1994, China has maintained its position as the world’s largest textile and apparel exporter for 18 consecutive years. However, in the face of the sudden global financial crisis and the European debt crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, coupled with the continued sluggishness of the Japanese economy, the demand from major international markets for China’s textiles and apparel has shrunk sharply, and the export of China’s textiles and apparel has brought about Serious impact.
In 2008, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s textile and apparel exports dropped sharply from 19.1% in the previous year to 8.2%, and in 2009 it dropped to -9.7%! Although there was an obvious rebound in 2010 and 2011 due to factors such as rigid demand and insufficient inventory replenishment, due to the continued fermentation of the European debt crisis and the high unemployment rate in Europe and the United States, China’s textile and apparel export growth fell again in 2012. 3.3%. Europe and the United States have also gone from tightening their pockets due to the financial crisis to emptying their pockets in the post-financial crisis period. The previous consumption habits of “using tomorrow’s money today” are also quietly changing. Facing the extremely complicated international and domestic economic situation, in 2013, China’s textile industry was affected by factors such as slowing domestic consumption, insufficient international market demand, the continued widening of domestic and foreign cotton price differences, and the rising costs of various factors. The industry throughout the year The growth rate of major economic indicators has dropped significantly. Although the growth rate of textile and apparel exports rebounded to 11.24%, it mainly relied on the rapid growth of exports to the ASEAN market, while the share of traditional export markets continued to show a downward trend. The demand for Chinese textiles and apparel in the European Union, the United States and Japan was still growing. Hovering low (see Table 1 and Figure 1-4).
In 2014, affected by the United States’ accelerated withdrawal from its quantitative easing policy, the global financial crisis��The vast majority are occupied by international third-party quality service agencies. Theoretically speaking, in the face of market changes in China’s textile and apparel exports in 2008 and 2009, when growth slowed down or even dropped sharply due to the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, the performance of these inspection and testing agencies should also be significantly affected. But the result is exactly the opposite. The business income of several major international third-party giants that cover more than 80% of China’s textile and apparel export inspection and testing tasks has shown substantial growth.
After careful analysis of the reasons, there are two major factors that contributed to the formation of this “counterattack” result: First, due to the reduction in liquidity, overseas buyers changed their orders from large orders to small orders, and then placed orders after the funds were withdrawn. Although the total trade volume has declined, the number of orders has increased, as has the number of inspections and tests that usually go hand in hand with orders. The second factor is even more obvious. With the full implementation of REACH regulations, international buyers’ requirements for hazardous substance monitoring have increased significantly, and the demand for chemical testing has increased significantly. Of course, we cannot exclude the possibility that there is a third factor, that is, due to the continued sluggish economic conditions, developed countries subjectively realize the essence of their trade protectionism by strengthening green trade barriers. Obviously, in addition to the impact and pressure brought by changes in the international economic, financial and consumer market environment on China’s textile and apparel exports, green trade barriers and green consumption trends have become one of the major challenges to maintaining the sustained and stable development of China’s textile and apparel exports. .