Composite Fabric,bonded fabric,Lamination Fabric Lamination Fabric News “Country Risk Analysis Report” European Edition – Belarus

“Country Risk Analysis Report” European Edition – Belarus



Editor’s note According to the forecast released by the WTO in 2014, global trade growth this year will be 4.7%, lower than the average level of the past 20 years. Judging from the situation in the first half o…

Editor’s note

According to the forecast released by the WTO in 2014, global trade growth this year will be 4.7%, lower than the average level of the past 20 years. Judging from the situation in the first half of 2014, world economic activity is picking up, but growth potential has weakened and investment momentum is still insufficient. Despite this, the pace of exploring the global trade market cannot stop. Under this circumstance, it is particularly important to grasp the global situation and predict the risks of the target market.

Starting from this issue, the international trade edition is based on the latest 2014 version of the “Country Risk Analysis Report” released by China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation, and excerpts some of the risks of countries that have close ties with my country’s textile and apparel economy and trade or have good development potential. Analysis content is published. A small number of these countries are developed countries, which are China’s traditional trading partners, but with political and economic changes, the risk index has undergone some changes; some are emerging economies, although emerging market countries are judged to be powerful It drives world economic growth, but its endogenous driving force is insufficient and economic development still faces many difficulties. It is hoped that these analysis contents can provide reference for enterprises to carry out foreign trade business and overseas investment.

Belarus

Country risk reference rating: Level 6 (6/9)

Country Risk Outlook: Stable

 ◆Political Risk

In 2014, the political situation in Belarus was generally stable, maintaining the political structure of “strong president, weak government, and small parliament”. The president’s status was stable, and national politics and society remained stable. The opposition is weak and marginalized. The unstable economic situation has a certain impact on the political situation, but it will not affect the status of the ruling authorities.

The Belarusian government hopes to attract foreign investment and continue to improve the deteriorating financial situation, which will effectively curb the risk of expropriation, especially for the assets and shares of large foreign investors. However, based on past experience, the government does not respect private property enough and uses expropriation as a legal tool, possibly to increase the state’s share of profit-making industries, or to take action against private operations after problems arise.

Capital received by foreign investors from investment transactions or settlements and funds obtained pursuant to execution statements can be repatriated. Companies can exchange Belarusian rubles into foreign currencies before repatriating profits, but there are likely to be practical difficulties with exchanges during the country’s recession, as the government wants to keep funds at home.

 ◆Economic Risk

In 2013, the Belarusian economy slowed down significantly and the inflation rate continued to be high. Belarus is highly dependent on Russia for oil consumption. At the same time, the planned economic system is strongly colored, and state-owned enterprises generally have low efficiency. Accelerating the development of the internal market, improving the economic management mechanism, and launching competition are the three main directions of Belarus’s new economic policy. Belarus’s short-term economic risks will decrease in 2014, but the government’s wavering economic policies will affect economic development.

The Belarusian economy recovered relatively quickly from the international financial crisis in 2008, but encountered a serious crisis in 2011, with the currency depreciating sharply and the inflation rate rising sharply. In 2013, due to weak investment demand, severe deterioration in net exports and increasing foreign debt, the Belarusian economy only maintained low-speed growth, with GDP growth of 0.9%.

The International Monetary Fund’s analysis of Belarus’s main macroeconomic variables in the next five years believes that Belarus’s economic environment will improve, but the slow progress of structural reforms will continue to restrict Belarus’s economic development, and its dependence on energy imports and trade structural imbalances will If the economy continues to be restricted, the economy may maintain a low growth rate of around 3% in the future.

 ◆Business environment

The Belarusian ruble is pegged to a variety of foreign currencies and is freely convertible. Foreign investors can remit their investment income abroad in free currency without restrictions. The country’s economy is relatively closed and its ability to attract foreign investment is limited. In 2013, it attracted US$2.5 billion in investment, mainly in trading companies, transportation companies and industrial companies. However, Belarus has an advantageous geographical location, close to the EU market, and has low cargo transportation costs; the government has adjusted its investment management system, the investment environment is improving day by day, and the launch of the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union has expanded the market space, so it is expected to attract more foreign investment in the future. According to the “Business Environment Report 2014”, the ease of doing business in Belarus ranked 63rd among 189 countries (regions), one place higher than the previous year.

The Belarusian government is very keen to attract foreign direct investment, but admitted companies must strictly comply with wage standards, equipment modernization and capital ratio requirements. Machinery manufacturing, metal processing, petrochemicals, wood processing, etc. have become promising areas for attracting foreign direct investment in Belarus.

 ◆Policy suggestions

Examining Belarus’s legal risks from three aspects: legal completeness, law enforcement costs and exit costs. In the future, Belarus’s legal system will remain relatively stable and will not change much, so its legal risk outlook is stable.

Belarus’s economic growth is slowing down, and external economic imbalances are currently the biggest risk, which may cause another currency crisis. It is recommended to pay close attention to changes in Belarus’s external economic imbalances and the resulting economic risks. External competition brought about by the depreciation of the Belarusian ruble since 2011The increase in strength is only temporary. At present, Belarus’s international balance of payments situation has deteriorated, and the risk of external financing has increased.

In-depth tracking and research on the structural reform process of the Belarusian government and its impact on economic development. To improve Belarus’s international competitiveness and improve its international balance of payments imbalance, Belarus needs to carry out real and comprehensive structural reforms. This challenge is huge, and no progress is currently visible.

This article is from the Internet, does not represent Composite Fabric,bonded Fabric,Lamination Fabric position, reproduced please specify the source.https://www.yjtextile.com/archives/12687

Author: clsrich

 
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