In September this year, the national textile and apparel trade volume was US$30.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Among them, exports were US$28.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%; imports were US$2.36 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; the trade surplus for the month was US$26.19 billion, an increase of 8.4%. From January to September, the cumulative trade volume of textiles and clothing was US$241.92 billion, an increase of 5.3%, of which exports were US$221.93 billion, an increase of 5.9%; imports were US$19.98 billion, a decrease of 0.6%; the cumulative surplus was US$201.95 billion, an increase of 6.6%.
From the perspective of international market demand, the global economy is recovering slowly, and import demand in European and American markets is growing. Since the beginning of this year, the Eurozone’s economic recovery has shown momentum, with GDP turning from negative to positive and PMI (purchasing managers index) imports growing rapidly. Driven by consumption and investment, the unemployment rate in the United States has declined and the economy has steadily recovered. Although emerging markets have entered a period of adjustment, the economic growth of countries such as Brazil, India, and Russia is still higher than the world average. Japan’s economic recovery lacks momentum, coupled with the consumption tax’s suppression of domestic consumption, the outlook is not optimistic. Judging from the domestic economic situation, my country’s overall economy is stable with a slight decline this year. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts that the economic growth rate this year will be about 7.3%. In May this year, the State Council issued the “Several Opinions on Supporting the Stable Growth of Foreign Trade”, which continued to increase support for foreign trade and played an important role in the stable growth of exports. However, foreign trade companies are still facing difficulties such as rising labor costs, strengthening external constraints such as resources and environment, and the two-way fluctuation of RMB, which makes prediction more difficult.
Export
Textiles and apparel grow simultaneously
The European and American markets are the main force
From January to September, general trade exports totaled US$169 billion, an increase of 6.2%, which was the main driving force for overall export growth, with exports accounting for 76.2%; processing trade exports decreased by 1%, mainly processing exports with supplied materials. It fell by 9%, and processing with imported materials increased slightly by 1%; border small trade exports fell by 0.9%, a significant decline from the growth rate in the first half of the year. National textile and apparel exports achieved simultaneous growth. Textile exports were US$83.13 billion, an increase of 4.9%, and clothing exports were US$138.8 billion, an increase of 6.5%. Among major categories of commodities, except for the export of knitted garments, which fell by 5.8%, all other categories of commodities maintained growth. Among textiles, yarns increased by 0.7%, fabrics increased by 4%, and finished products increased by 7.3%; among apparel, the total exports of bulk commodities knitted and woven garments totaled 26.61 billion pieces (sets), an increase of 8.1%, and the average export unit price fell by 3.4%. .
At present, the national reserve cotton inventory is abundant and prices are oscillating lower. Therefore, the export price of cotton yarn and cotton clothing has shown a downward trend. The export price of cotton yarn fell by 2.3% and that of cotton clothing fell by 6.3%.
Fastest growing in the EU
With the steady advancement of economic structural reform in the Eurozone and government spending cuts, consumption in the EU market has grown significantly and the economy is showing signs of recovery. Christmas sales are approaching, and the EU has the fastest growth among my country’s three main export markets. In September, textile and clothing exports to the EU were US$4.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. From January to September, my country’s cumulative exports to the EU were US$45.06 billion, an increase of 16.6%. Among them, textiles increased by 11.4% and clothing increased by 18.1%. Among the major categories of commodities, yarn increased by 9.2% and fabrics increased by 7.4%. Exports of finished products and knitted and woven garments all achieved double-digit growth, with increases of 14.3%, 11.8% and 27.3% respectively. Among them, the total export volume of knitted and woven garments reached 6.1 billion pieces (sets), an increase of 15%, and the average export unit price increased by 4.7%.
Both volume and price for the United States are rising
From January to September, my country’s exports to the United States were US$33.6 billion, an increase of 7.5%. Among them, textiles increased by 5.6% and clothing increased by 8.1%. Among garments, the total exports of knitted and woven garments were 4.65 billion pieces (sets), an increase of 3.5%, and the average export unit price increased by 4.5%. In September, textile and clothing exports to the United States were US$4.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.
The two traditional markets of the EU and the United States have once again become the main growth points of my country’s exports. The share of exports to Europe and the United States in total exports has increased from 33.4% last year to 35.4%, an increase of 2 percentage points, which has greatly contributed to the overall export growth. reached 4.17 percentage points.
On the slowdown in ASEAN
From 2010 to 2013, ASEAN has become the fastest growing major market for my country’s exports for four consecutive years, with export growth exceeding 20%. The growth rate has gradually slowed down this year. From January to September, cumulative exports to ASEAN were US$25.59 billion, an increase of 3.4%, of which textiles increased by 8.8% and clothing decreased by 4.3%. Among bulk export commodities, exports of fabrics increased by 13.7%, yarns increased by 5.7%, and finished products increased by 16.1%. Among clothing, knitted and woven clothing performed very differently: the export volume of knitted clothing dropped by 39.1%, while the export volume of woven clothing surged by 234.7%. Among them, clothing made of various fabrics doubled, and woolen clothing increased by more than 10 times. Export destinations are mainly concentrated in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries.
Continued downturn in Japan
Since the beginning of this year, Japan’s economic recovery has lacked momentum and its economy has continued to be sluggish. The Japanese market’s ranking among my country’s major textile and apparel export markets has further declined. From January to September, my country’s exports to Japan accounted for 8.2% of total exports, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3 percentage points. Judging from the monthly export situation, except January, exports all declined in the remaining months. From January to September, exports fell by 8.5% cumulatively, of which clothing fell by 10.6% and textiles maintained a weak growth of 1.5%. Among clothing, the total export volume of knitted and woven clothing fell by 9.5%, and the export unit price fell by 2.3%.
Import
Clothing import volume increases, price decreases
The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has narrowed
From January to September this year, my country’s textile imports were US$15.3 billion, a decrease of 5.6%, and clothing imports were US$4.69 billion, an increase of 28.5%. Imports of yarn and fabrics, which accounted for the main share of textiles, fell by 7.6% and 9.3% respectively, while finished products increased by 6.9%. Affected by the drop in cotton prices, the import volume of cotton yarn fell rapidly. After entering the third quarter, the import volume turned from increase to decrease, falling by 6.4%. The rapid growth of clothing imports is mainly driven by knitted and woven clothing. In the first three quarters, the total import volume of knitted and woven clothing increased by 64%. The import source countries are mainly concentrated in North Korea, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Uzbekistan and other countries. The average import volume The unit price dropped by 25%.
In the first three quarters, the country’s cotton imports dropped significantly. In the first five months, imports basically showed a monthly decline trend. The decline narrowed in June and July, and fell again in August and September. In September, cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a decrease of 38.9%. From January to September, the cumulative cotton imports were 2.002 million tons, a decrease of 38%. The average unit price of imports was US$2,090/ton, an increase of 4.1%. In September, cotton-consuming enterprises still mainly purchased cotton from state reserves and imported cotton, and the spot price showed a downward trend. After the Xinjiang cotton target price pilot implementation plan was announced in mid-September, cotton prices fell further. The average price of China’s cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 16,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 486 yuan/ton from the previous month. The monthly average price of China’s imported cotton price index FCIndexM was 77.33 cents/pound, down 1.4 cents/pound month-on-month. The 1% tariff and sliding tax discounted RMB are 12,160 yuan/ton and 14,190 yuan/ton respectively, which are lower than the Chinese cotton price index of 4,430 yuan and 2,400 yuan respectively in the same period, and the price difference narrows by 256 yuan and 705 yuan respectively. In the first three quarters, the price difference between domestic cotton and imported cotton further narrowed.
Customs statistics of major markets
The growth rate of EU imports from China is lower than the average
According to EU customs statistics, from January to August this year, the EU imported US$91.43 billion in textiles and clothing from the world, an increase of 11.2%. The cumulative import of textiles was US$21.68 billion, an increase of 11.4%, and the import of clothing was US$69.75 billion, an increase of 11.1%. Imports from China were US$33.39 billion, an increase of 8.9%, which was lower than the average growth rate. Imports from ASEAN amounted to US$8.05 billion, an increase of 14.9%. The market share of Chinese products in the EU was 36.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, and that of ASEAN was 8.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. Türkiye is 13.7% and Bangladesh is 11.5%.
The growth rate of U.S. imports from China is not as fast as that of ASEAN
According to U.S. Customs statistics, from January to August this year, U.S. textile and apparel imports amounted to US$77.35 billion, an increase of 2.5%. Among them, textile imports were US$17.87 billion, an increase of 3.6%, and clothing imports were US$59.48 billion, an increase of 2.2%. The cumulative imports from China were US$28.74 billion, an increase of 0.7%. Imports from ASEAN amounted to US$15 billion, an increase of 3.3%. The market share of Chinese products in the United States was 37.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the same period last year. ASEAN’s market share in the United States was 19.4%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Japan’s share of Chinese products dropped another 4 points
According to Japanese customs statistics, Japan’s textile and clothing imports continued to decline, falling by 11.9% in August. From January to August, Japan’s total textile and clothing imports were US$25.86 billion, down 4.2%, of which textile imports were US$5.92 billion, up 3.9%, and clothing imports were US$19.93 billion, down 6.4%. Imports from China were US$17.17 billion, a decrease of 9.6%, while imports from ASEAN were US$4.73 billion during the same period, an increase of 13.5%. The share of Chinese products in the Japanese market dropped to 66.4%, a decrease of nearly 4 percentage points from the same period in 2013. ASEAN’s market share in Japan rose to 18.3%, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points from the same period in 2013.
