Unilateral bull and bear markets are unlikely to occur in the price cycle this year. The overall probability of periodic rises and falls is greater, but the upward price elasticity is higher than the downward price.
Prices rose slightly in the first quarter. There may be a short-term weak performance after the purchase and storage ends; there is a high probability of a periodic rise in the later part of the year; the purchase and storage price will start to move closer to the new year in the fourth quarter.
The ranking is stable until the first half of 2014, which may bring another important time point.
Discussion on the market outlook
Whether the purchase and storage policy should be modified
How to self-adjust if the industry has excessive production capacity
Can the external macro environment be warmer
How the internal and external price differences are finally resolved.
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