Why is it difficult for exports to “dance” with the recovery of the US and European markets?

Data released by the General Administration of Customs show that, supported by the rebound in external demand, my country’s foreign trade export growth increased quarter by quarter in the first three quarters, reaching -6.1%, 3.4% and 12.8% respectively. It is worth noting that although the recovery of the manufacturing industry in traditional markets such as the United States and Europe has been beneficial, it has not driven the rapid growth of China’s exports as strongly as in the past.
The industry calls this weakening of trade and economic ties between emerging markets and developed economies the “decoupling” effect. In fact, in recent years, as the recovery momentum of developed economies represented by the United States has increased, this new trend has continued to emerge.
Data show that among the three major economies of the United States, Japan and Europe, the market share of “Made in China” has continued to fall after rising to a peak of 20% in 2011; although China is still the largest source of imports for the United States, the market share of Chinese goods from 2011 to 2013 Its proportion in U.S. imports has dropped by 2 percentage points cumulatively; my country’s exports to the U.S. as a proportion of total exports have also dropped from around 20% to 16.8% in the first three quarters.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the weakening of the direct driving effect of economic growth in the United States and Europe on China’s exports is not only affected by domestic active regulation, that is, the implementation of market diversification strategies, but also caused by passive adjustments.
After the current round of international financial crisis, developed economies launched a wave of “re-industrialization” to boost their own economies, guiding some mid- to high-end manufacturing industries to return home. At the same time, as my country’s cost advantage gradually erodes, labor-intensive industries have a clear tendency to shift to other emerging markets, and more and more “Made in Vietnam” and “Made in Mexico” have begun to realize their demand for “Made in China” at lower prices. Supply substitution.
Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that since 2011, the share of my country’s seven major categories of labor-intensive products such as clothing and textiles in the developed markets of the United States, Europe and Japan has continued to decline. In the first half of this year, they fell by 0.1, 0.4 and 2.8 respectively. percentage points, while similar products in Vietnam increased by 0.2, 0.7 and 1.1 percentage points during the same period.
In addition to the import substitution effect caused by the economic adjustment of developed economies and the market diversion of other emerging countries, the “decoupling” of China’s trade with developed economies also comes from the increase in imports from countries that have signed free trade agreements with the United States and Europe. transfer effect. With the advancement of negotiations on regional trade arrangements such as the Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), this may become a new barrier to my country’s foreign trade in developed markets.
“China’s foreign trade is facing double pressure in international competition.” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shen Danyang said that we must not only withstand the competitive pressure from other developing countries and ensure that the original mid- and low-end market share does not suffer a major decline, but also extend from processing and manufacturing to the high end of the value chain. It is not easy to win a place in the competition with emerging industries in developed countries.
It should be noted that last year, the scale of my country’s import and export of goods exceeded US$4 trillion, which means that every 1% increase now is equivalent to an increase of about 5% 10 years ago, and there is limited room for continued expansion. In the future, improving the quality and efficiency of foreign trade development should be the main goal, and new international competitive advantages beyond cost should be established as soon as possible.
In this process, we should pay attention to cultivating local multinational companies. While consolidating the development advantages of labor-intensive industries, we should promote the extension of the international division of labor from processing and manufacturing to the full value chain, and improve my country’s value in the international industrial chain. Value-added capabilities. In addition, our country should also actively participate in the negotiation and formulation of global and regional trade rules to truly promote China’s transformation from a large trading country to a powerful trading country.