In the past August, my country’s foreign trade basically continued its previous recovery trend, with export growth slightly adjusted back from July, imports still sluggish, and the trade surplus once again hit a record high in a single month.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th showed that in August, my country’s total import and export value was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. Among them, exports were 1.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. Although it fell back from the 14.1% growth rate last month, it was still better than the previous market expectation of 9%.
Compared with exports, which have picked up for two consecutive months, imports, which reflect changes in domestic demand, still maintain negative growth. In August, my country imported 0.98 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4%. Under the trade pattern of “warm outside and cold inside”, the trade surplus in August hit a single-month historical record, reaching 306.1 billion yuan, an expansion of 76%.
“Thanks to the general environment of economic recovery in Europe and the United States, stable external demand is one of the important reasons for the high export growth in August.” Zheng Yuesheng, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said that thanks to the general environment of economic recovery in Europe and the United States and With the arrival of the traditional peak season for foreign trade, it is expected that my country’s foreign trade exports will still maintain a certain rebound momentum in the next few months.
In bilateral trade with major trading partners, my country’s imports and exports to the EU, the United States, ASEAN and Japan have maintained growth. In the first eight months, the total value of China-EU bilateral trade was 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9%. The total value of bilateral trade between China and the United States was 2.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4%. The total bilateral trade value between China and ASEAN was 1.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.2%. The total value of bilateral trade between China and Japan was 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.5%. The total value of bilateral trade between the mainland and Hong Kong was 1.37 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.9%.
Compared with fluctuations in data, changes in trade structure deserve attention. Data shows that in the first eight months of this year, my country’s foreign trade structure showed continued optimization. Among them, the import and export of general trade was 9.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 5%, accounting for 54.9% of my country’s total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year; during the same period, the import and export of processing trade was 5.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7%, accounting for 54.9% of China’s total foreign trade value. The value was 31.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year.
From the perspective of regional distribution, the pattern of my country’s foreign trade import and export has become more coordinated. Although the import and export value of the seven traditional foreign trade provinces and cities such as Guangdong and Jiangsu still account for 77.6% of my country’s total foreign trade value, this figure has dropped by 2.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Exports from the central and western regions maintained rapid growth. The export growth rates of Yunnan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Guangxi and Hunan were 49.5%, 45.7%, 34.2%, 28.2% and 26.4% respectively.
It is worth mentioning that in the first eight months, the export of mechanical and electrical products, which accounted for most of my country’s exports, dropped slightly by 0.5%, while the export of seven major categories of traditional labor-intensive products such as clothing, footwear, toys, and bags increased sharply. An increase of 4.3%.
In this regard, Li Jian, a researcher at the Foreign Trade Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, said that on the one hand, this shows that external demand has improved and that my country’s traditional foreign trade commodities still have strong advantages. On the other hand, it is also related to the depreciation of the RMB in the previous stage, especially It is the decline of the real exchange rate that has supported the export of labor-intensive products. “However, the expansion of the trade surplus has brought pressure for RMB appreciation, and the export price advantage brought by the depreciation of the exchange rate in the first half of the year will gradually disappear.”
What needs attention is that the continued decline in imports has caused many market participants to worry about the lack of growth momentum behind China’s weak domestic demand. From the data point of view, the expansion of the decline in imports is partly related to the fall in international commodity prices, but it also highlights the current situation of insufficient domestic demand and high downward pressure.
The latest China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows that the PMI in August turned downward after rising for five consecutive months. Although the 51.1% value was still the second highest point of the year, it was down from July. 0.6 percentage points. The foreign trade export leading index released by the customs in August was 41.9, which was also down 0.7 from July.
“Judging from a series of leading indicators, the current basis for the recovery of my country’s foreign trade needs to continue to be consolidated.” Li Jian said that while promoting stable growth of foreign trade, it is still necessary to accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading to form new competition in my country’s foreign trade. Advantage.
“Since the launch of customs clearance integration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, customs in Beijing and Tianjin have accepted a total of 776,000 integrated customs declarations, which has a significant effect in promoting stable growth of foreign trade.” Zheng Yuesheng said that with the replication of innovative regulatory measures in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone Through the promotion and upcoming implementation of customs clearance integration in the Yangtze River Delta and other measures, more foreign trade companies will enjoy the dividends brought by trade facilitation reforms.
