Guangxi Ministry of Industry and Information Technology documents show that electricity prices in high-energy-consuming industries have increased by 50%. Inner Mongolia has raised transaction electricity prices. The specific increase depends on monthly data. In addition, Guizhou areas A notice was issued to expand the fluctuation range of trading electricity prices, and Yunnan Province also issued a draft for comments on improving the time-of-use electricity price mechanism. The market is increasingly expecting rising trading electricity prices. As electricity prices rise, short-term raw materials will still strengthen.
At the same time, the recent production restrictions in the textile and chemical fiber industry are still spreading. The market is currently highly consistent in its expectations for the normalization of textile mills in the future. However, there are contradictions and doubts about the pace and rhythm of market operation, and there is uncertainty. The factors mainly focus on the intensity of upstream and downstream management and control.
The extreme rapid rise in raw materials
Inflicts additional operating pressure on the downstream market
Only the demand environment In terms of the Golden Nine peak season, it did not meet the expectations of the industry, but in terms of price trends, the surge in crude oil and the expected rush for raw cotton harvest in the second half of the year intensified the rising momentum of the three major cotton spinning industries. During the National Day, ICE continued to rise, and Xinjiang officially entered the rush to harvest period. The purchase price of seed cotton continued to rise. Attributable to the savings on the cost side, which gave the market high explosive power. Polyester and viscose had strong melt costs, dual-control power rationing, and production restrictions. The situation is also upward with the trend. Even if China Reserve postpones and increases its reserve sales, the extremely rapid rise in raw materials will still add more operating pressure to the downstream market, and its upward trend will continue.
As of the 21st, the three major cotton spinning raw materials had increased by 4,500, 1,230, and 2,480 respectively compared with September 23. (Unit: yuan/ton
For cotton spinning mills, the cost of spinning raw materials accounts for more than 60%, followed by electricity and labor costs. Therefore, dual control suppresses In an environment of demand, textile companies tend to follow cost logic and intend to follow up with price increases in order to avoid losses in processing fees. However, on the one hand, cotton spinning mills have to withstand the continuous and rapid rise in raw materials, and the trend of rapid growth. The decline has made cost accounting more difficult. On the one hand, the downstream industry has to endure the embarrassing situation of neither buying up nor buying down after completing replenishment before the National Day. At present, some textile companies still do not quote prices for the time being, and most of them maintain high quotations, but few There are transactions. Looking at the cost side alone, the price of yarn has hardly exceeded the price of raw materials.
As of the 21st, the three major pure spinning yarns have increased by 3,500, 3,500, respectively compared with September 23. 1700, 2350. (Unit: Yuan/ton)
Coastal power curtailment reduction
Polyester-related and adhesive-related products have been destocked on a large scale
In September, industry start-ups declined. On the one hand, the demand environment was poor, but the greater stimulating factor was the double control restrictions. The current double-control power restrictions and production restrictions have spread from the coast to the central region, and 1/3 of the production capacity in many areas cannot be used. Compared with before the power restrictions, the operating rate of pure cotton yarn dropped by 10.2 percentage points. Pure polyester yarn dropped by 9.1 percentage points, and rayon yarn dropped by 5.5 percentage points.
In September, yarn prices first fell and then rose. During the decline, downstream demand only maintained rigid demand. Double control reduced supply and demand. Cotton spinning mills relied on early orders, and although inventories rose slowly, they remained at a low level. By the end of the month, on the one hand, raw cotton drove up the yarn price, and on the other hand, downstream started pre-holiday replenishment, which indeed drove cotton spinning mills to destock, but the sustainable orders were not large or long. After the National Day, yarn prices surged along with raw materials, while the downstream remained on the sidelines and bought low prices. Without the support of buyers, the inventory of finished products of pure cotton spinning companies continued to rise, and gradually reached the high point of the year. Due to the excessive growth of raw cotton, some downstream products have turned to polyester- and viscose-related products, which has led to the continued destocking of pure polyester yarn and rayon yarn that have also maintained a growth rate.
There is a replenishment demand for raw materials
But some factories have been closed for 10-15 days to avoid the edge!
Due to the excessive and rapid increase in raw cotton prices, many cotton spinning mills failed to replenish supplies before the National Day, resulting in a serious shortage of raw cotton reserves. Currently, only a few companies have large reserves, and these few companies have also suspended raw cotton purchases. Some factories can only maintain raw cotton production until the end of the month to early November. The high risks brought by high-priced cotton allocation make textile companies operate more conservatively. In addition, The inventory of finished products is still rising, and it is difficult to realize capital realization by relying only on periodic replenishment of urgent needs. Some factories have been closed for 10-15 days to temporarily avoid the risks caused by raw cotton.
On the whole, due to cost calculation alone, raw cotton may maintain a slow upward trend. Yarn processing fees have been gradually compressed. It is expected that even if the demand environment is harsh, the price driven by the cost side will gradually continue downward.��, it is expected that the yarn market price will still be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and polyester- and viscose-related varieties will replace part of the raw cotton.
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