Under the energy crisis, global anxiety continues to spread.
In anticipation of a global shortage, coal prices hit a record high again! It is reported that on October 9, the spot price of thermal coal at the port rose sharply, breaking the historic mark of 2,000 yuan/ton; on October 11, the spot quotation of thermal coal reached 2,200 yuan/ton, setting a new historical record.
It is worth noting that thermal coal futures fell sharply last Friday after Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other places successively issued policies to increase production and ensure supply. However, as spot prices rose over the weekend, futures discounts became larger. On October 11, thermal coal opened strongly and rose sharply in early trading, and the daily limit was sealed in late trading.
When futures opened on the night of the 11th, Zhengzhou Coal opened sharply higher by more than 6%, and coking coal, iron ore, and coke also rose by more than 2%. Subsequently, the gains of various major varieties continued to expand. As of the close of the night, the increase of the main contract of thermal coal expanded to 10.85%, approaching the daily limit again; the increase of the main contract of coking coal also exceeded 5%.
In addition to thermal coal, due to the surge in crude oil, WTI oil prices exceeded the US$80 mark, domestic chemical products surged across the board, and methanol, PVC, etc. reached their daily limit. Some organizations pointed out that due to the high global temperatures in summer and the consumption of a large amount of energy, there is a high probability that La Niña will usher in this winter, pushing up the prices of bulk textile commodities.
The spot price exceeded the 2,000 yuan mark, and thermal coal futures hit the daily limit
No one expected that this was the traditional off-season, but coal was in extremely short supply, and it was a global coal shortage. It suddenly became the “king” and led many commodities to surge.
Since August, the policy of “guaranteing supply” to increase production has been implemented. However, the tight supply of coal has continued, and the increase in coal prices further expanded in the third quarter. During the National Day period, Inner Mongolia’s Ordos, Shanxi, and Shaanxi Yulin issued policy documents to increase production and ensure supply; on October 8, when the market opened after the holiday, thermal coal fell nearly 9%. On October 9, the spot price at the port rose sharply, exceeding 2,000 yuan/ton, and the futures discount to the spot price was too large. On October 11, the thermal coal futures closed the daily limit strongly.
According to reporter statistics, since August 17, thermal coal futures have exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton from 750 yuan/ton, and closed above 1,400 yuan on the 11th. / mark, in less than 2 months, the increase has been as high as 86%.
Zuo Peng, chief analyst of CITIC Securities Energy and Chemical Industry, pointed out that the current market has great differences in judgment on the additional new production capacity in the main coal production areas, but because some of the new production capacity has been released, We estimate that the annualized effective new production capacity in the fourth quarter is about 100 million to 120 million tons, corresponding to a quarter-on-quarter increase in output of about 30 to 40 million tons in Q4. Even with the increase in seasonal expansion of existing production capacity, the supply gap is expected in the fourth quarter. There are still 20 million tons, and it will be difficult to reverse the tight supply situation during the year. Under this expectation, the central coal price is expected to still rise to a certain extent in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter.
Oil prices exceeded the US$80 mark, and chemical products surged across the board
In addition to the global shortage of coal, crude oil, the “king of commodities”, has also surged on expectations of tight supply and economic recovery. You must know that in April last year, oil prices fell into negative territory for a time. There was so much oil that it even blocked pipelines. There were so many fully loaded cruise ships at sea that there was no place to store it.
On October 8, WTI oil prices exceeded the US$80 mark for the first time in seven years; on October 11, WTI oil prices rose by more than 3% to US$82, once again Refresh the previous high. It is worth noting that international oil prices have risen for seven consecutive weeks. Coupled with the shortage of coal, the energy crisis sweeping the world is exacerbating the wintering difficulties in the northern hemisphere.
Driven by the surge in crude oil, domestic chemical products surged across the board on October 11, with methanol, PVC, etc. reaching their daily limits, and LPG, PTA, EG, etc. also rising sharply. As of now, the prices of PVC, PP, EB, plastic and other chemical products are all above 10,000 yuan, setting a new historical record. Even the price of methanol has exceeded the 4,000 yuan mark, setting a new high since its listing. A year ago, the price of methanol was less than 2,000 yuan.
Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank The report said: “Given the current strong demand, which may also be driven by natural gas buyers turning to oil, coupled with OPEC+’s production restriction policy, the oil market will remain tight until the end of the year.”
Ming Ming, chief analyst of CITIC Securities FICC, also pointed out that the market is increasingly worried about the global energy crisis. Specifically, in the context of the transformation of the global energy structure, this energy crisis mainly revolves around traditional fossil energy, including oil, natural gas and coal. The rising prices of energy products have caused power supply shortages around the world and put pressure on industrial production. At the same time, high electricity prices and shortages of natural gas and gasoline have also caused disruptions to residents’ lives. It is expected that the high prices of major energy products will be difficult to change in the short term. A new round of global inflation is coming, and my country’s inflationary pressure cannot be ignored.
Abnormal weather may exacerbate commodity fluctuations
It is worth noting that while the supply of resource products is in short supply, weather changes may intensify the volatility of commodity prices. Cai Yongzheng pointed out that the global temperature is relatively high in summer, which consumes a lot of energy, and there is a high probability that La Niña will usher in this winter.
CICC also issued a document saying that in August 2021, NOAA announced that there were signs of La Niña happening again, and another climate reversal was imminent. The global precipitation and temperature anomalies caused by La Niña weather have different impacts on different industries/industries. The cold weather that may be caused by La Niña may be good for energy and…Related industrial chains such as charcoal, textiles, clothing, and chemical fibers have intensified market concerns about energy shortages in winter, pushing up the prices of bulk commodities such as natural gas, heating oil, coal, and cotton textiles to a certain extent. </p
