Introduction: After the National Day holiday, PTA, the main raw material of polyester filament, closed down after three consecutive gains. After the holidays, the price of most models in the polyester filament market increased by about a thousand yuan, and profits were quickly restored. Moreover, this production restriction caused a mismatch between upstream and downstream supply and demand, and the overall supply remained high. Therefore, polyester filament yarn may have a narrow correction expected in the short term, but the overall trend is still positive.
High supply
Table 1 Domestic polyester filament in the past month Construction start comparison table
Source: Longzhong Information
Longzhong Information statistics show that in mid-August Since then, news of polyester filament factory maintenance and production restrictions have emerged frequently, and the operating rate of the polyester filament industry has dropped by 20 percentage points compared with August. However, production restrictions have a greater impact on downstream operations than raw materials, and the upstream and downstream operations are currently in an unbalanced state.
Table 2 Estimated operating conditions of mainstream major polyester filament manufacturers after production cuts
Source: Longzhong Information
Specifically, mainstream manufacturers have been reducing production since mid-to-late August. According to the current production cuts announced by mainstream manufacturers, Tiansheng has the largest reduction in production, followed by Xinfengming, Tongkun, and Heng Yi and Shenghong have reduced production relatively little. Among them, Hengyi Hengming has postponed the commissioning of a 300,000-ton polyester filament unit, and Shenghong plans to reduce cationic production by 250,000 tons by the end of October. According to the current rough estimate of the intensity of downstream production cuts, the gap between supply and demand is large. The editor believes that the current operating rate of mainstream factories is still relatively high, and there may be expectations for large-scale production cuts in the future.
High profits
Figure 1 Profit trend of mainstream models of polyester filament Picture
Source: Longzhong Information
Table 3 Profit comparison of mainstream polyester filament models
Source: Longzhong Information
As can be seen from the above table, with the continuous help from the cost side in recent days, the price of polyester filament has risen rapidly, and profit recovery has been relatively slow. Obviously, comparing the profits of mainstream models of polyester filament, the profits of polyester filament are generally considerable. As of the 12th, polyester filament POY150D/48F reported 8600, profit 493.92, FDY150D/96F reported 8750, profit 493.92, DTY150D/48F reported 10450, profit 650, and profits have basically returned to the same period in mid-July (yuan/ton).
Summary
Polyester filament has high supply and high profit Under the current situation of “double high”, market prices may be expected to have a narrow correction in the short term. Considering that the general trend of international crude oil in the fourth quarter remains relatively strong, it is recommended that market participants wait for the opportunity for correction to cover their positions in a timely manner and purchase cautiously in the short term. </p
