The “dual control” factor continues to affect the polyester market. Polyester maintenance and production reductions continue to increase, and the operating rate has been declining. According to data from the Chemical Fiber Information Network and Longzhong Information, the operating rate of the polyester industry was 81% on September 29. , down 3% from September 24. Large-scale production cuts on the demand side have put greater pressure on the demand for polyester raw material PTA.
According to the reporter’s understanding, since late September, Tiansheng, Quandi, Hengteng and other companies in Zhejiang have carried out maintenance of polyester plants with a total capacity of 1.46 million tons. Xinfengming (603225.SH), Dawo and other companies have reduced production by 1.25 million tons. At the end of September, Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ)’s 200,000-ton filament device needs to be overhauled. In terms of national production capacity, 4.125 million tons of polyester production capacity was shut down on September 24, and the number of shutdowns rose to 6.135 million tons on September 29.
“The current polyester production reduction is greater than the upstream PTA production reduction. The upstream PTA production capacity reduction is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu. As of September 29, PTA shut down production capacity was 4.6 million tons. , and polyester production capacity has been reduced to varying degrees in Jiangsu and Zhejiang,” Xie Wen, senior analyst of the aromatics industry chain of the Zhongda Research Institute, told reporters from the Financial Associated Press. The weakening of polyester market demand may drag down the price of PTA in the future.
Weak downstream demand may continue until mid-October
Xie Wen It was mentioned that the energy consumption of each link in the polyester industry chain from high to low is terminal weaving, polyester, coal-based MEG, oil-based MEG, and PTA. The high-energy-consuming terminal weaving and polyester links are most affected by the dual control. The weaving operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang began to decline from 80% in August, and fell below 50% in late September.
Because the energy consumption of PTA equipment is the smallest in the polyester industry chain, the overall impact of “dual control” is limited. Although Zhejiang’s PTA production capacity accounts for the highest proportion, it is currently not subject to restrictions. Large, more impact depends on the demand changes in the downstream polyester market.
Many people in the textile industry told reporters that the traditional Golden Nine and Silver Ten are not applicable this year. The epidemic has led to increased shipping freight and extended cycles. Downstream stocking has been advanced, and the off-peak and peak season cycles have been Disruption, the current downstream demand is not high, and the procurement of raw materials is also relatively cautious. Future market demand will have to wait until winter orders are placed one after another.
“The polyester market currently does not have much positive support, mainly due to rising costs and the impact of production cuts, resulting in tight market supply. As production in Ningbo and Taicang is once again restricted, the operating rate Further decline, and resumption of production must be applied to and approved by the government, and production may not be able to resume in October,” a polyester filament industry analyst told the Cailian News reporter, “Downstream looms are planning to restart by mid-October. It has driven a wave of purchases, so in order to increase their export prices and ensure profits under weak demand, they will now try their best to maintain high commodity prices, so the polyester industry chain will still have an upward trend in the future.”
Price fluctuations affect polyester profitability
The reporter learned that PTA prices this year The year-to-date increase is 33.77%, with a slight correction after the August high. After the dual control began, the market price increased by about 11% from September 10 to September 29, and the overall price is still in an upward channel.
It is worth noting that the price fluctuation of PTA raw materials directly affects the profitability of polyester. Therefore, related listed companies such as Tongkun Shares (601233.SH) and Xinfengming have all increased their prices. You layout PTA to ensure the company’s stable supply of raw materials. In the third quarter of 2019, Xinfengming put into production 2.2 million tons/year PTA for the first time. By June this year, the actual PTA production capacity had reached 5 million tons. The most intuitive benefit brought to Xinfengming is the increase in the gross profit margin of polyester filament. In 2021 The annual H1 reached 13.27%.
Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ) mentioned in its 2021 semi-annual report that in the pricing game between PX and PTA factories, PX industry profits have obviously shifted to the midstream and downstream, promoting PTA Industry concentration has further increased, and leading companies continue to leverage their scale advantages. As of the end of June 2021, the domestic PTA production capacity is approximately 66.23 million tons, and the company’s PTA production capacity is approximately 16 million tons/year, ranking first in the world in terms of scale.
A number of groups, including the above-mentioned companies, have already moved towards refining and chemical integration, including Hengyi Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Tongkun Co., Ltd., Shenghong The group has formed a PX-PTA-polyester industry chain. Rongsheng Petrochemical said in response to investors’ questions on September 29 that the company is the first domestic company to own crude oil-PX-PTA-MEG-spinning, film and bottle flakes. Listed companies in the chemical industry chain.
Data source: 2021 Semi-annual Report
Remarks: The unit is 10,000 tons (the holding capacity of listed companies is also included)</p
