Yesterday, the overall popularity of the polyester chain continued to be strong, with ethylene glycol leading the price increase by more than 4%, closing at 5,885 yuan. PTA and short fiber fell back after rising high, closing in the red. Expectations of high oil and coal prices, unabated cost drivers, and continued tight supply have provided bulls with the confidence to push prices higher.
With the arrival of the heating season in the fourth quarter, rigid demand has been boosted, and coal prices have been high and difficult to fall. Although most of the major coal-to-ethylene glycol plants have long-term contracts However, the overall price of coal has also risen significantly compared with the same period, and the cost of external coal-using enterprises has increased even more obviously. Against the backdrop of sharp increases in other energy prices, oil prices have recently risen steadily and hit previous highs.
Recently, with the introduction of “dual control” policies in various places, it has had a greater impact on the supply of high-energy-consuming industries. As far as the polyester industry chain is concerned, “dual control” has a great impact on the upstream and downstream links. All have some impact. Judging from the energy consumption of each link in the polyester industry chain, the energy consumption of each link in the polyester industry chain from high to low is terminal weaving, polyester, coal-based MEG, oil-based MEG, and PTA.
In September, the release of new domestic ethylene glycol units was lower than expected. The start-up of existing units was affected by external forces and the load was reduced. The overall monthly output did not increase but fell instead of increasing month-on-month. Imported goods were affected by the lack of significant increase in the start-up of overseas equipment. The import volume was obviously lower than market expectations, and the inventory in the main port fell instead of being tired. Looking at the next 10 months, despite the impact of the stable mass production of the Fujian Gulei device, there is still great uncertainty in the overall production increase because some existing devices are still affected by load reduction and maintenance.
In terms of demand, Longzhong Information statistics show that as of September 23, the impact of power cuts has worsened, mainly involving texturing, weaving, and downstream dyeing plants; among them, many sets of polyester plants have reduced production and overhauled, with an average The load dropped to around 83.93%, and there are still devices for maintenance in the later period, so the load will further decrease; the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions dropped to 54.23; the comprehensive operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions dropped to 33.19%. However, last Thursday, some dyeing factories in Shaoxing issued notices for workers to return to the factory in the afternoon, requiring workers to return to the factory on the 25th. Whether it is interpreted by the market as a “relaxation” of the power restriction policy remains to be followed up.
However, the downstream burden has dropped significantly, and the demand side continues to weaken, forcing PTA companies to increase maintenance. After the middle of the month, domestic PTA production companies began to report shutdowns intensively. Hengli Petrochemical Line 2, Yangzi Petrochemical, Fujian Baihong and Tongkun Line 1 had to reduce their parking load, and the early parking devices have not yet been restarted. As a result, the PTA supply and demand table has shifted from a substantial accumulation since mid-August to a balanced state. Give the market momentum to stabilize and rebound. </p
