The national reserve policy in 2016 is the core factor affecting cotton price trends. In addition, tight supply in the spot market and wide trading in cotton futures are also reasons for the rise in cotton prices. For the cotton spinning market in 2017, under the background of “destocking”, cotton imports continued to be restricted by quota policies, and the focus of the cotton market was still on digesting the state’s cotton reserves.
According to the latest forecast of the United States Department of Agriculture, the gap between domestic cotton supply and demand in 2016/2017 will reach 2.232 million tons. In the new year, storage sales will continue to be arranged to ensure cotton supply. On the demand side, cotton yarn companies are facing increasing financial pressure due to rising raw material prices, and an increase in the number of gray fabric factories being shut down due to printing and dyeing companies. Insufficient terminal demand remains a pain point in the industry. Industry insiders predict that the cotton market will consolidate and bottom out around the Spring Festival, and the price of cotton reserves will start to rise. At the same time, driven by substitute chemical fiber and other raw materials, the overall focus is expected to continue to shift upward in 2017.
[Hongyuan Futures] It is expected that the bottom price of cotton in 2017 will be around 14,700 yuan/ton, and the top price will be around 18,600 yuan/ton.
[Shenwan Futures] In 2017, cotton prices will fluctuate with a weak trend at first and then a strong trend. In the early stage, because the new cotton from last year will no longer be stored in rotation, it will be digested by the market, and the supply will be relatively loose, so cotton prices will fluctuate slightly; in the later stage, as destocking continues, the inventory-to-consumption ratio will return to a rational range, supporting the upward trend of cotton prices. .
[Founder Mid-Term] The price of cotton in 2017 is expected to be 10,000-19,000 yuan/ton.
[Luzheng Futures] Global cotton production increased slightly in 2017, but the large gap between China’s production and demand determines that global cotton stocks are still in a downward cycle. Although domestic stockpiling can cover the actual demand gap, it may not be able to meet the needs of textile enterprises for stocking and trade. Due to the substantial increase in speculative demand caused by merchants’ stockpiling, cotton prices may still rise.
[Green Dahua] ICE cotton: 70-80 cents/pound; Zheng Cotton: Output remains at around 4.5 million tons, or may rise to more than 5 million tons, depending on the spot price of sown cotton.
[Nanhua Futures] Cotton prices will maintain an upward trend, but the extent will be limited. Judging from the cotton price index, 13,000-18,000 yuan/ton may become the main range for cotton prices in 2017.
[Xinhu Futures] Overall, the supply and demand pattern at home and abroad is gradually improving. The elimination of backward production capacity in China has basically ended, and the industrial structure has gradually been optimized and upgraded. In the long run, there is still room for imagination in the cotton market, especially after a certain amount of destocking next year. The cotton market may A new round of bull market will usher in.
[Cinda Futures] Entering 2017, when the cotton harvest season ends, cotton processing speeds up, and transportation eases after the Spring Festival, the overall market focus will shift to policy direction. The release of reserve cotton and the determination of its price will largely determine the expectations of the cotton market next year and the resulting price changes. The reserve cotton inventory of more than 8 million tons has become a major bargaining chip for regulating the market.
[Dadi Futures] In the first half of the 2016/17 market year, domestic cotton prices have been under heavy pressure because they are already at a relatively high level. However, because they are in a destocking cycle, there is significant support below, and it is more likely to move out of the center and move downwards. shock market.
[Zheshang Futures] Zheng Cotton is expected to be volatile in 2017, and the hot spot speculation will be stronger during the period. The bottom support is 14,600 yuan/ton, and the upward high is 18,000-18,500 yuan/ton. In the medium and long term, we are still optimistic about the long term.
[BOCI] It is expected that the cotton market in the new year will maintain wide fluctuations.
[Soochow Futures] The fluctuation area of cotton in 2017 is 14,500-18,500 yuan/ton.