[168TEX News] Entering the countdown to the Spring Festival, both PTA companies and polyester manufacturers have recently announced the Spring Festival holiday schedule.
In February, the polyester market once again ushered in the maintenance of multiple sets of equipment. According to preliminary statistics, the polyester production capacity under maintenance has now increased to about 10.2 million tons, while the production capacity of the equipment that was previously overhauled has been restarted in the near future. The restarted polyester production capacity is only around 2 million tons. Overall, the current operating rate of the polyester market is around 60.5%, and the recovery of the operating rate in the later period will also be at a rather slow stage; this relieves the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers from the supply side. As can be seen from the table below, the polyester maintenance equipment that was restarted between the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival only occupied about 45% of the production capacity of the maintenance equipment.
Then our focus naturally shifts to the demand for polyester. China Silk City Network conducted questionnaire interviews with 50 companies in Shengze area in mid-January. At that time, the overall startup rate of the textile market was good, but most manufacturers said that they would gradually slow down the production pace in the future. Now that we have entered February, as the Spring Festival approaches, how will the weaving market change? What situation is the polyester market facing?
According to a survey by China Silk City Network, the current overall loom startup rate in the textile market is low, and most textile companies in Shengze area entered a holiday state at the end of January and early February. Judging from the specific production situation, as can be seen from the figure below, there are generally not many manufacturers with an operating rate of looms above 30%, accounting for only about 15% of the market share, and manufacturers with an operating rate of around 20-30% occupy approximately 15% of the market share. 46% level, and another 39% of manufacturers have entered a state of suspension of production.
As for the start-up schedule after the new year, it is slightly unstable. The Spring Festival holiday generally lasts until the seventh day of the Lunar New Year. Some large-scale enterprises have more orders. Production and sales will resume on the eighth day of the Lunar New Year. However, the production and sales time of most small and medium-sized enterprises will lag behind. According to previous years Experience shows that production generally cannot be resumed until the fifteenth day of the first lunar month. Specifically regarding the expected start-up rate of the weaving market after the Spring Festival, we have already investigated in our previous report articles. According to the expected start-up rate of looms after the Spring Festival (during late February), nearly 73% of weaving companies expect the recovery rate to be around 4-4. Around 70%, nearly 9% of manufacturers expect it to rise to 80% or above. Of course, some manufacturers believe that the start of construction may be below 40%.
Due to inventory and financial pressures years ago, weaving manufacturers were generally not very enthusiastic about stocking up on raw materials. Early statistics show that about 70% of weaving manufacturers stocked up on raw materials for about half a month, and some even only maintained it for less than a week. Therefore, when the operating rate of the weaving market gradually increases after the year, the demand for raw material procurement will also rebound greatly; the weaving market had a large backlog of orders before the year, and orders will also come in after the year. Production is proceeding in an orderly manner, and for raw materials Batch demand has become inevitable.
According to the inertia of previous years, driven by the rebound in downstream demand after the Spring Festival, the polyester filament market may have a “good start”, but the room for substantial growth is limited; the sustainability of its upward trend in the future still needs to pay attention to the upstream cost support motivation and the recovery of downstream demand. .
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