[168TEX News] With the start of the “roller coaster” of international oil prices, the frequency of declines has further increased. Suppressed by this, the price focus of various polyester petrochemical products has also continued to be depressed; while the PTA market has no room to fall, The magnitude of the decline is relatively small, so the room for cash flow losses is relatively restrained.
The following is an analysis of the cash flow of the entire upstream industry:
In terms of naphtha, since January, international crude oil prices have shown a sharp rise and fall trend, falling below the important resistance levels of 35, 30, and 28 US dollars, and once fell to 26.19 US dollars per barrel, setting a 12-year low. Thanks to the strong boost, it was able to return to a position above $30. Crude oil has hit new lows continuously, and naphtha product prices have also shown a downward trend. As of January 29, naphtha prices were at US$323.88/ton CFR Japan. The processing fee for processing crude oil into naphtha is calculated as US$35-50/ton. The current cost of naphtha is US$282-297/ton, and the profit margin of naphtha is US$26-41/ton, compared with the same period last month. , dropped significantly by nearly US$70/ton.
In terms of MX, based on the processing fee of 50-60 US dollars/ton for processing naphtha into MX, the production cost of MX manufacturers is 374-384 US dollars/ton. Calculated based on the Asian isomeric MX price of 551 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea at the end of January, the manufacturer The immediate cash flow is US$167-177/ton, which is not much volatile compared with last month’s profit.
In terms of PX, according to the MX-PX processing cost of 80-100 US dollars/ton, the production cost of PX is about 631-651 US dollars/ton. According to the Asian PX price at the end of January of 695 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea, the current gross profit of PX manufacturers is 44 -$64/ton. Compared with the previous month, the profit margin has improved, increasing by nearly $50/ton.
In terms of PTA, the raw materials are calculated according to PX FOB South Korea US$695/ton on January 29, the processing fee is calculated at US$150-170/ton, and the cost of PTA is US$609-629/ton. The current external price of PTA is concentrated around US$545/ton. , the external disk loss amount was 64-84 US dollars / ton. Compared with the previous month, the loss range only showed signs of narrowing slightly.
In addition, based on the processing fee of 720 yuan/ton, the cost converted into RMB is about 4,306 yuan/ton. The current PTA internal price negotiation is concentrated at the level of 4,200 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s immediate cash flow is still at a loss, and the loss space is reduced to About a hundred yuan.
From the above cash flow analysis, it can be seen that although the decline in crude oil prices still exists, naphtha prices also continue to decline, causing naphtha manufacturers to further shrink their profit margins; MX prices follow the trend of raw materials, while PX prices decline relatively small. Therefore, the cash flow situation of PX manufacturers has been improved. In addition, for PTA, although its internal and external price focus is in a weak consolidation trend, the cash flow losses of its manufacturers have been relatively alleviated under the influence of the weakening cost of upstream raw materials.
At present, the cash flow situation of PTA manufacturers shows signs of improvement, but the market outlook is still facing many tests. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, end garment manufacturers and the weaving market are in a state of reducing production shutdowns. As a result, downstream polyester manufacturers are under pressure from all parties. Nearly 10 million tons of polyester units are facing production shutdowns or planned maintenance. , the overall operating rate of the polyester industry has dropped significantly, suppressing the PTA market from the demand side. From a supply perspective, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, the production load of PTA may increase slightly in the future, and the problem of oversupply may reappear. Overall, PTA manufacturers’ cash flow losses may be at risk of further expansion.