Due to the postponement of Thanksgiving and the fact that the U.S. economic climate in November 2018 was better than the same period this year, U.S. retail sales increased only slightly in November 2019, but in the first half of the shopping season holiday During this period, consumers continued to cut their decoration budgets.
According to data from the National Retail Federation (NRF), retail sales rose slightly by 0.1% in November, seasonally adjusted since October. An increase of 2.1% compared with the same period last year.
This figure does not include cars, gas stations, and restaurants, with online and other non-store sales growing 7.2% year-over-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it increased 0.8% month-over-month.
Sales of clothing and clothing accessories stores, seasonally adjusted, decreased by 2.9% from the same period last year and increased by 0.6% from the same period last month. Sales at sporting goods stores, seasonally adjusted, increased by 4.3% from the same period last year and 0.5% from the same period last month. Sales at general merchandise stores remained unchanged from the same period last year, but increased slightly by 0.1% from October.
As of November, the three-month moving average grew 3.3% year-on-year, down from 4.2% in October.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: According to various economic indicators in November, the U.S. economy showed moderate growth, but you must remember that due to the postponement of Thanksgiving Day, The busiest period of the holiday shopping season is starting late, pushing billions of dollars in Cyber Monday retail sales into December. These numbers are more about the timing of the shopping season than consumer confidence. Consumer spending has remained steady, and there is even more to come. With strong employment and wage gains, we are heading into a strong holiday shopping season.
Kleinhenz added that the year-over-year comparison is facing challenges, as November 2018 grew by 4.7% compared with the same period in 2017, which was exceptionally strong. In addition, many consumers shop early this year, and some consumers have started shopping plans before November.
According to NRF forecasts, holiday retail sales will grow by 3.8-4.2% in November and December 2019, with total retail sales reaching US$727.9-730.7 billion.
The organization also noted that January 2020 is likely to see a strong contrast as December 2018 was down 0.2% from the same period in 2017.
NRF numbers are based on data from the US Census Bureau (USCensus Bureau). The U.S. Census Bureau said total sales in November, which includes car dealerships, gas stations and restaurants, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% from October and a year-over-year increase of 3.3% not seasonally adjusted.
