In July 2016, the total import and export value of national trade in goods was US$317.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%. Among them, exports were US$184.73 billion, down 4.4%; imports were US$132.43 billion, down 12.5%. The trade surplus for the month was US$52.31 billion. From January to July, the total import and export value was US$2.02776 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. Among them, exports were US$1,167.65 billion, down 7.4%; imports were US$860.11 billion, down 10.5%, with a cumulative trade surplus of US$307.54 billion.
In July, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$27.14 billion, down 8.7%, of which exports were US$25.13 billion, down 7.8%, and imports were US$2.01 billion, down 18.3%. The trade surplus for the month was US$23.12 billion, down 6.7%. From January to July, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$163.28 billion, down 4.3%, of which exports were US$150.16 billion, down 3.5%, and imports were US$13.12 billion, down 12.6%. The cumulative trade surplus was US$137.04 billion, down 2.6%.
1. The absolute value of exports in July hit the lowest level in recent years, and the export situation in the second half of the year is not optimistic.
Starting from April, the growth rate of textile and apparel exports has been declining, with negative growth in June. Exports in July were only US$25.13 billion, the lowest in the past four years, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, and the decline was 2.5 percentage points larger than in June.
The third quarter is the peak period for exports in a year, accounting for the largest weight in the annual export volume. The performance of this quarter will affect the trend of exports throughout the year. Judging from the situation in the first month of the third quarter of this year, the absolute value of exports shrank and the year-on-year decline expanded despite the low year-on-year base last year. This was contrary to early expectations. If there is no significant improvement in August and September, the second half of the year and the whole year will be Exports in 2018 will not be optimistic.
The decline in imports is even more obvious: it fell by 18.3% in July, and the decline was nearly 7 percentage points larger than in June.
2. General trade exports declined rapidly.
In July, all major trade modes of exports fell, of which general trade fell by 8.5%, a decline that exceeded the average for the first time this year. Processing trade and small border trade fell by 16.9% and 10.4% respectively. Only other trade based on market procurement The mode still maintains a rapid growth of 40.4%.
From January to July, general trade decreased by 2%, processing trade and small border trade decreased by 16.9% and 17.8% respectively, and other trade methods increased by 29%.
3. All major markets performed poorly.
EU – The decline in exports to the EU once again expanded to double digits, and the unit price of clothing exports fell rapidly.
The decline in exports to the EU once again expanded to double digits. Exports in July were US$5.49 billion, down 10.6%, of which clothing fell by 12.4%. The total export volume of knitted and woven clothing fell by 1.2%, and the average unit price of exports fell by 12.2%. From January to July, cumulative exports to the EU were US$28.21 billion, a decrease of 5.7%, of which textiles increased by 3.1%, clothing decreased by 8.3%, the total export volume of knitted clothing decreased by 0.7%, and the export unit price decreased by 8.4%.
United States—Exports to the United States continued to decline, with the cumulative decline exceeding that of other major markets.
Since April, exports to the United States have continued to decline. By July, they had experienced negative growth for four consecutive months. In July, they fell by 9.4%. Among them, clothing fell by 10.5%. The export volume of knitted and woven clothing fell by 5.1%. The export unit price fell by 4.4%. %.
From January to July, cumulative exports to the United States were US$24.93 billion, down 5.8%, the largest decline among key markets, surpassing the European Union and Japan. Among them, textiles dropped by 6.4% and clothing dropped by 5.7%. The export volume of needle-woven garments fell by 2.8%, and the average export unit price fell by 1.5%.
ASEAN – Exports to ASEAN have further shrunk, and the unit price of clothing exports has dropped by nearly 20%.
Although the year-on-year decrease in exports was not large, the absolute value of my exports to ASEAN further shrunk. In July, when exports peaked, exports to ASEAN were US$2.58 billion, only higher than February, down 1.3% year-on-year, and down 4.8% month-on-month. The main reason was that clothing dropped significantly, down 14.6%. The average unit price of needle-woven clothing exports down nearly 20%. From January to July, China’s cumulative exports to ASEAN were US$19.26 billion, a decrease of 1.4%, of which textiles increased by 5.8% and clothing decreased by 16.3%. Among them, the export volume of needle and woven clothing decreased by 3.5%, and the average export unit price decreased by 14.6%.
The Philippines is still the growth point of China’s exports. In July and the previous seven months, China’s exports to the Philippines increased by 25.6% and 59.8% respectively.
Japan – The decline in exports to Japan narrowed, and the downward trend slowed down slightly.
Exports to Japan in July were US$1.64 billion, temporarily ending the monthly decline in exports. The decline narrowed to 0.4% for two consecutive months, which was smaller than other key markets. Cumulative exports to Japan from January to July were US$10.9 billion, down 4.4%. Among them, textiles decreased by 1.8%, clothing decreased by 5.1%, the total export volume of needle and woven clothing decreased by 0.3%, and the average export unit price decreased by 4.9%.
Fourth, exports of textiles and clothing both declined, with falling prices becoming the main reason.
In July, textile exports fell by 4.8% and clothing by 9.4%. Among textiles, fabrics and finished products declined faster, with a decline of 5.2% and 4.9% respectively. Yarn was relatively moderate, with a decline of 2.2%. The total export volume of medium-needle woven apparel still increased by 1.2%. The decline in textile and clothing exports was mainly driven by falling prices: export volumes of yarn and fabrics both maintained growth, but export prices fell by 13.9% and 8.8% respectively. The export unit price of needle-woven garments fell by 10.8% that month, falling below 10% for the first time this year.
From January to July, textile and clothing exports decreased by 1.5% and 4.9% respectively, of which yarn, fabrics, and finished products decreased by 2%, 0.4%, and 2.8% respectively. ��The total export volume of woven garments fell slightly by 0.3%.
5. National exports generally declined, but Shandong maintained growth.
In July, the exports of most provinces (cities, districts) across the country generally declined, and only Shandong maintained growth among the key export provinces and cities in the east. Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Fujian all experienced declines to varying degrees. From January to July, exports from Guangdong, Fujian and Shandong still increased by 0.1%, 1.8% and 2.6% respectively, while Zhejiang and Jiangsu decreased by 3.9% and 1.8% respectively.
6. Imports of textiles and clothing dropped, and both volume and price of commodities fell.
In July, imports of textiles and clothing all fell, with declines of 20.4% and 13% respectively. Among textiles, yarn declined the fastest, with a drop of 26.7%, of which cotton yarn imports fell by 24.1%. The total import volume of knitted and woven clothing fell by 9.8%. The unit price of bulk commodity imports fell: yarn fell by 4.9%, and needle-woven garments fell by 4.6%.
From January to July, cumulative imports of textiles fell by 16.9%, while clothing increased slightly by 0.8%. In textiles, yarn, fabrics and finished products decreased by 23.6%, 13.2% and 6.8% respectively. The total import volume of medium-needle woven clothing increased by 5.7%.
7. The decline in cotton imports narrowed, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton expanded.
In July, cotton import volume rebounded slightly from the previous period, and the decline was significantly reduced. Imports in the month were 95,000 tons, a decrease of 10.2%, and the unit price of imports decreased by 7.5%.
In July, there were few spot resources in the domestic market, and cotton reserves became the main purchasing channel for textile enterprises. Under the influence of various factors, the spot price of domestic cotton has risen, the auction of reserve cotton has been enthusiastic, and the transaction price has continued to rise. The monthly average price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex3128B) was 14,316 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,622 yuan/ton, or 12.78%; a year-on-year increase of 1,130 yuan/ton, or 8.57%. At the end of the month, it was 15,308 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,030 yuan/ton from the end of last month.
In July, international cotton prices continued to rise, but the increase was not as high as domestic prices, and the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton continued to expand. The monthly average price of China’s imported cotton price index FCIndexM was 80.23 cents/pound, an increase of 6.26 cents or 8.46% month-on-month. At the end of the month, it was 83.37 cents/pound on July 29, up 8.37 cents from the end of June. The 1% tariff was discounted to RMB 14,045/ton, which was lower than the Chinese cotton price index of 1,263 yuan/ton in the same period. The price difference expanded by 695 compared with the same period last month. Yuan.
