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-Shandong port cotton imports decreased by .% year-on-year



According to Jinan Customs statistics, Shandong ports imported 418,000 tons of cotton in the first half of this year, a 40.7% decrease from the same period last year (the same below); the value was 4.5 billion …

According to Jinan Customs statistics, Shandong ports imported 418,000 tons of cotton in the first half of this year, a 40.7% decrease from the same period last year (the same below); the value was 4.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.2%; the average import price was 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease 14.4%.

1. The main characteristics of Shandong port cotton imports in the first half of the year

(1) Monthly import volume has decreased year-on-year for 12 consecutive months, and the average import price has rebounded slightly from a low level. In the first half of 2015, cotton imports at Shandong ports continued to fluctuate at low levels, but rebounded slightly in May and June. In June, 74,000 tons were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 35.8% and a month-on-month increase of 7.2%. During the same period, the average monthly cotton import price at Shandong ports continued the decline since 2014. The average import price in January was 9,941.8 yuan/ton, the lowest in 64 months. After that, the fluctuations rebounded. In June, the import price rose to 11,000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% and a month-on-month increase of 4.6% (below).

(2) Imports under special customs supervision account for more than 60%. In the first half of the year, Shandong ports imported 259,000 tons of cotton under special customs supervision, a decrease of 38.7%, accounting for 61.9% of the total cotton imports at Shandong ports during the same period (the same below); 80,000 tons were imported through processing trade, a decrease of 57.1%; General trade imported 79,000 tons, a decrease of 17.9%.

(3) Private enterprises and state-owned enterprises are the main importers. In the first half of the year, private enterprises at Shandong ports imported 234,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 44.1%; state-owned enterprises imported 143,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 26.5%; together they accounted for 90.2% of the total import volume. In addition, foreign-invested enterprises imported 41,000 tons, a decrease of 55.3%.

(4) The United States and India are the main import source countries, and imports from Brazil have doubled. In the first half of the year, Shandong Port imported 173,000 tons of cotton from the United States, an increase of 18.7%; it imported 84,000 tons of cotton from India, a decrease of 78.5%; the two together accounted for 61.4% of the total import volume. Imports from Uzbekistan were 63,000 tons, an increase of 37.4%; imports from Brazil were 28,000 tons, an increase of 3.7 times.

2. The main reasons for the sharp decrease in cotton imports at Shandong ports in the first half of the year

(1) The substantial reduction in quotas and the continuous narrowing of domestic and foreign price differences are the main reasons for the reduction in cotton imports. In 2015, my country issued a total of 894,000 tons of cotton import quotas and will no longer issue additional import quotas. Due to quota restrictions, the pace of enterprises importing foreign cotton has slowed down. In the first half of the year, Shandong port import quota was 403,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 37.8%. At the same time, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continues to narrow. From June 22 to 26, the international cotton index (M) was calculated based on a 1% tariff, and the import cost was 12,000 yuan/ton in RMB, which was lower than the domestic market of 1,363 yuan/ton; Calculated based on the sliding tax, the import cost is RMB 14,000/ton, which is higher than the domestic market of RMB 516/ton[1]. Domestic cotton prices have declined overall, international cotton prices have rebounded slightly, and the price advantage of foreign cotton has gradually weakened.

(2) Cotton yarn imports are growing strongly and their substitution effect is prominent, which has an impact on cotton imports. From September 2014 to May 2015, my country imported a total of 1.7079 million tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 8.18%. Based on this increase, my country’s total cotton yarn imports in 2014/15 will reach 2.1911 million tons, while from September 2013 to In August 2014, my country imported only 2.0254 million tons of cotton yarn, which is equivalent to a reduction of more than 2.3 million tons of cotton consumption by Chinese enterprises (average spinning loss is calculated as 5%), accounting for more than 35% of China’s cotton consumption this year [2]. Since late June, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarns has continued to widen. For example, the price difference between C21, C32S India-Pakistan, and Vietnam yarns and domestic yarns is generally more than 1,000 yuan/ton. The price, single supply volume, and letter of credit settlement of imported cotton yarns The advantages in other aspects continue to expand. In the first half of the year, Shandong Port imported 107,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Affected by cotton yarn import substitution, Shandong Port cotton imports decreased significantly.

3. Issues worthy of attention in the current cotton industry and related suggestions

(1) The release of cotton reserves increases market supply, and spot imports of foreign cotton will continue to be under pressure. On June 30, 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission officially issued a document stating that part of the cotton reserves will be rotated out in early July. The quantity will be temporarily arranged at 1 million tons, and sales will be stopped after the start of the new year in September [3]. The current market lacks high-quality cotton, and the industry expects that the reserve of Chinese and foreign cotton will be more attractive to cotton textile mills and traders. This will have a great impact on the more than 200,000 tons of port bonded cotton (2014/15 US cotton, Uzbekistan, West Africa). cotton, Indian cotton) will have an impact. It is expected that some cotton spinning mills will promptly purchase state-reserved cotton and US cotton to replenish raw material inventories, and the unsaleable situation of foreign cotton in Hong Kong may continue [4]. In the second half of the year, foreign cotton imports may continue to decline.

(2) Cotton stocks continue to be high, downstream demand is weak, and cotton prices will continue to remain weak. In 2014/15, my country’s cotton output was 26.17 million tons, consumption was 24.36 million tons, the ending inventory increased by 21.82 million tons, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio was 89.6%. The global inventory-to-consumption ratio, except China, was 56%[5], and the inventory-to-consumption ratio reached nearly The highest level in forty years. The recent output of 1 million tons of cotton from the state reserve will further increase the cotton market supply and put some pressure on cotton prices in the future. At the same time, there are structural problems in domestic cotton. The oversupply of low-grade and low-quality cotton is serious, and the domestic market has shown a surplus of cotton. Currently, downstream textile and apparel exports are not performing well, the gauze market has weakened, and the textile industry’s raw material inventory remains low; a large amount of imported cotton yarn has also had a certain suppressive effect on the demand for cotton. The contradiction between cotton supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent, and domestic cotton prices will continue to remain weak.

Suggestions for this: First, pay close attention to the reaction of market entities to the rotation of state reserves of cotton, and further improve the rotation of state reserves of cotton.� policies to guide the smooth operation of the cotton market; the second is to appropriately increase the proportion of high-quality state reserves of cotton to alleviate the shortage of high-quality cotton supply; the third is to pay close attention to the future cotton price trend, implement relevant subsidy policies, and be wary of the impact of weak cotton prices on cotton. impact on production.

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Author: clsrich

 
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