Composite Fabric,bonded fabric,Lamination Fabric Lamination Fabric News Looking at the Textile Export Situation from the International Economic Environment

Looking at the Textile Export Situation from the International Economic Environment



Since 2012, the growth rate of global trade volume has been lower than the world economic growth rate for three consecutive years. The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that global trade volume will grow …

Since 2012, the growth rate of global trade volume has been lower than the world economic growth rate for three consecutive years. The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that global trade volume will grow by 4% in 2015, a growth rate of 0.9 percentage points higher than that of 2014. However, it is still significantly lower than the average growth rate of 5.1% since 1990, and this forecast still faces the possibility of downward revision. Against the background of low-speed growth of the world economy, consumption and investment demand in various countries are generally sluggish, international trade growth momentum is insufficient, and my country’s foreign trade situation is grim.
1. The trends of major economies are divergent
At present, the world economy is still in a period of deep adjustment after the international financial crisis, with limited growth momentum and obvious economic differences among countries. The U.S. economy has made some progress in recovery, endogenous driving forces have gradually emerged, the labor market and financial market have continued to improve, and the economy has entered a stable growth range. The Eurozone is still plagued by high unemployment and consolidation of fiscal consolidation, and it is difficult for economic growth to rebound significantly. The stimulus effect of Japan’s loose monetary policy is diminishing, the prospects for structural reform are unclear, and the economy continues to grow at a low rate. The divergence of monetary policies in major developed economies has prompted the continued appreciation of the U.S. dollar, and the relative yield of U.S. dollar assets has increased significantly, leading to an increase in risk premiums in global financial markets. In particular, the expansion of abnormal international capital flows and the intensification of international exchange rate fluctuations will have an impact on my country’s economic stability. , which is not conducive to my country’s export trade. It is expected that in 2015, the growth rate of my country’s textile exports to developed economies in Europe, the United States and Japan will remain low or negative. At the same time, textile export enterprises are reminded to pay attention to the risk of fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate.
2. Increased risks in emerging markets
Affected by the dual impact of the external environment and internal economic structural adjustments, the economic growth of emerging economies has slowed down, but overall it is still faster than that of developed countries. In particular, India’s reforms have achieved results, with an economic growth rate of more than 7%. However, the structural contradictions in many emerging economies are still prominent and industrial upgrading is difficult. Against the background of the appreciation of the US dollar, emerging economies are facing new capital outflow pressures, capital market turmoil has intensified, financial risks have risen, and economic growth has slowed down in the short term. It is difficult to reverse. In the cotton textile trade in 2014, it was found that my country’s exports of cotton textiles to some Southeast Asian and African countries have declined to varying degrees. In 2015, foreign trade pressure on my country’s exports to emerging textile markets still exists.
3. Commodity price volatility intensifies
Since the second half of 2014, the international market prices of oil and other energy resource products have fallen sharply. The decline in commodity prices is the result of sluggish demand, the release of production capacity from early investment and construction, and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. These factors will not fundamentally change in the short term. . First, due to sluggish consumption and investment demand, the recovery in demand for commodities has been weak; secondly, as the U.S. dollar has strengthened, capital risk preferences and investment hotspots have shifted, and the commodity market has suffered serious “bleeding”, suppressing commodity prices. Third, oversupply is also an important reason for the decline in commodity prices. The slow growth in demand for commodities has inhibited the expansion of production capacity to a certain extent. International commodity prices will remain weak in the short term. Among them, international cotton prices are more likely to fall. Textile companies need to make accurate judgments when purchasing imported cotton.
4. Trade protectionism is surging
Under the circumstances of the economic downturn, some countries use exchange rates as an important tool to boost exports and stimulate economic growth, and push for the devaluation of their currencies, resulting in a passive and substantial appreciation of the RMB, which seriously affects the competitiveness of China’s export products in the international market. In addition, some trade agreements discriminate and exclude products from countries outside the agreement, forming barriers to this rule, resulting in greater trade diversion benefits, which may affect the market share of countries outside the agreement in the free trade agreement member states. According to monitoring by the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a British think tank, more than a quarter of global protectionist measures have an impact on China’s exports, including Chinese textiles.
5. Export competition among countries is fierce
Despite the slowdown in global trade growth, my country’s export trade competitiveness still faces dual challenges. In the field of high-end industries, developed economies use their advantages in technology and talent to seize the forefront of emerging technologies, promote “re-industrialization” and open up international markets. In the past five years, US exports have grown at an average annual rate of 9%, and EU exports have grown at an average annual rate of 8.2%, both exceeding the overall growth rate of global exports. In the field of mid-to-low-end industries, surrounding emerging economies have taken advantage of the low cost of production factors such as labor and land to introduce preferential investment policies, actively undertake the transfer of processing and manufacturing industries, and promote rapid growth in exports. In the past five years, India’s exports have grown at an average annual rate of 14.2%, and ASEAN exports have grown at an average annual rate of 9.8%. As far as my country’s textile industry is concerned, high-end export industries such as textile equipment and clothing brands are facing greater competitive pressure from developed countries, while mid- and low-end export industries such as conventional textile intermediate products are facing catching up with surrounding emerging economies.

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Author: clsrich

 
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