1. U.S. textile product imports in 2008
According to statistics released by the Office of Trade in Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the import situation of U.S. textile products in 2008 is as follows:
(1) Import quantity and value experienced negative growth for the first time since 2001
In 2008, the United States imported a total of 50.4 billion square meters of various textile products, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%; the import value was US$93.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; the average price of textile products increased by 2% year-on-year. This is the first time since 2001 that U.S. textile product imports have experienced negative growth. It not only reflects the reduction in consumer demand caused by the U.S. economic recession, but also indicates that the effects of textile trade integration in 2005 have been fully released.
In 2008, the import value of textile products accounted for 4.4% of the total import of goods trade in the United States (US$2,112.5 billion), a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the proportion in 2007.
(2) Imports of various textile products generally decreased, and the decline in imports of finished products was lower than the decline in textile raw materials
In 2008, the United States imported 22.7 billion square meters of clothing, with a value of US$71.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% and 3.2% respectively; and imported 27.7 billion square meters of textiles, with a value of US$21.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% and 3.9% respectively. Among textiles, the import of finished products decreased by 5.4% and 2.1% year-on-year respectively; the import of textile raw materials decreased by 11.1% and 9.0% respectively; the quantity and amount of fabric imports decreased by 11.1% and 9.0% respectively. The amounts decreased by 9.3% and 7.4% year-on-year respectively.
(3) From the perspective of importing countries (regions), imports from neighboring traditional countries continued to decrease, while imports from Southeast Asia and South Asian countries increased slightly
In 2008, the U.S. textile product import market structure continued to adjust. The quantity of imports from CAFTA countries in Central America increased by 1.6%, and the amount decreased by 3.5%; imports from other neighboring traditional countries continued the downward trend since 2006, with the US imports from Mexico falling by 13.3%, Canada by 29.1%, and Turkey by 17%; The growth rate of imports from developing countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia slowed down significantly compared with 2007, and some countries (regions) experienced negative growth. The United States’ imports from India increased by 4.2%, Bangladesh increased by 7.2%, Cambodia increased by 2.6%, and Pakistan decreased by 7.7%. %, South Korea fell by 14.2%, Indonesia fell by 0.7%, Taiwan fell by 9.9%, Thailand fell by 2.1%, the Philippines fell by 17.1%, and Sri Lanka fell by 10.9%. In 2008, imports from Vietnam continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum. Based on the 31.3% and 34.2% increase in import quantity and value respectively in 2007, the import quantity and value of Vietnamese products in 2008 increased by 20.6% and 19% respectively, surpassing India in terms of value. , Mexico, two countries, suddenly became the second largest source of imports in the United States, and Mexico fell to the fourth place.
In terms of value, the top 10 sources of U.S. textile product imports in 2008 are: China, Vietnam, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Honduras, Cambodia, and Italy. The top 10 sources together account for all U.S. textile products. 71% of the imported products.
(4) The trade deficit increased slightly, and the trade deficit with China continued to expand
In 2008, the U.S. trade deficit in textile products totaled US$85.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, accounting for 10.4% of the total U.S. trade deficit in goods during the same period. Among them, the clothing deficit was US$70.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, accounting for 82.3% of the textile product deficit; the textile product deficit was US$15.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, accounting for 17.7% of the textile product deficit. The trade deficit from mainland China was US$37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, accounting for 43.4% of the total deficit in U.S. textile products.
2. U.S. imports of textile products from China in 2008
In November 2005, China and the United States signed a bilateral textile agreement to implement a three-year quota management on 21 types of textile products (34 categories according to the US category). 2008 is the last year for the implementation of the agreement. The relevant situation of the United States importing textile products from China throughout the year is as follows:
(1) The import quantity decreased, the amount increased, and the unit price increased
In 2008, the United States imported a total of 20.6 billion square meters of various textile products from China, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; the import value was US$32.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; the average unit price of imports increased by 4.9%. China’s share of the U.S. textile product import market in terms of volume increased from 40.3% in 2007 to 40.9% in 2008, and in terms of value, it increased from 33.5% in 2006 to 35.1% in 2008.
(2) The quantity of clothing and textile imports decreased, the amount increased, and the import share increased
In 2008, the United States imported 7.8 billion square meters of clothing from China, amounting to US$22.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% and an increase of 0.8% respectively. In terms of volume, China’s share of the U.S. clothing import market dropped from 34.4% in 2007 to 34.4% in 2008. 34.3%, in terms of value, increased from 30.8% in 2007 to 32% in 2008.
In 2008, the United States imported 12.8 billion square meters of textiles from China, amounting to US$9.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4% and an increase of 1.9% respectively. In terms of volume, China’s share of the US textile import market increased from 44.8% in 2007 to 2008. 46.3%, in terms of value, increased from 42.6% in 2007 to 45.1% in 2008.
(3) Import quantities and prices of restricted categories continue to rise
The United States has imposed restrictions on 21 varieties of Chinese imports. In 2008, the total import volume from China was 2.57 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; the total value was US$8.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. Among them, the import value of 17 products increased, and the import value of 4 products decreased.
In 2008, the weighted average unit price of restricted varieties increased by 2.0%, among which the unit price of 14 products increased by .There are 9 varieties with sales exceeding 5%, and the unit prices of 7 varieties have declined.
(4) The quantity of imports of unrestricted categories decreased, prices increased, and the proportion continued to decline
After three consecutive years of rapid growth since integration, the quantity and value of imports in unrestricted categories in 2008 showed negative growth for the first time in recent years. In 2008, the number of unrestricted textile products imported by the United States from China reached 18.04 billion square meters, a decrease of 4.6%, and the amount was US$23.7 billion, a decrease of 0.6%. The weighted average unit price increased by 4.2%; the unrestricted categories accounted for all the textile products exported from China to the United States. The proportion dropped from 88.4% in 2007 to 87.5% in 2008, and the amount proportion dropped from 73.8% in 2007 to 72.5% in 2008.
3. Analysis and Outlook of Sino-US Textile Trade Situation in 2009
(1) The U.S. economic downturn will lead to negative import growth
The U.S. economy has entered the most severe recession since the Great Depression and has shown no signs of recovery so far. The economic crisis has caused American consumers to face multiple pressures such as mortgage defaults, shrinking stock markets, and threats of unemployment. Consumer spending has dropped significantly. Since the second half of 2008, the sales of major U.S. clothing retailers have experienced double-digit negative growth every month, and some companies have suffered huge losses. The import demand for U.S. textile products continues to decrease. In 2008, only one month of each month had a year-on-year increase in import quantity, and only three months had a year-on-year increase in import value. In January 2009, the import quantity and value dropped by 8.9% and 8.5% respectively, which was higher than the level of the whole year of 2008, showing that the severity of insufficient market demand is still deepening. It is expected that the overall consumption and import level of US textile products will continue to decline in 2009, and the decline may even exceed that in 2008.
(2) The competition for U.S. import market share has become more intense, and the reshuffling of the situation continues
Faced with the prospect of reduced consumption and imports in the US market, major textile product exporting countries will continue to compete fiercely for the US market in 2009. Judging from the current situation, the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), which has been implemented for more than two years, has achieved initial results. CAFTA countries’ exports to the United States will remain basically stable in 2009. Canada, Mexico, Andean countries (ANDEAN), and Saharan countries will U.S. exports are expected to continue to decline. South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are expected to expand their market share in the U.S., and Vietnam’s export growth to the U.S. is expected to slow down, but its status as the second largest import source will not be challenged.
(3) China’s textile products exported to the United States may experience negative growth in imports
In January 2009, the United States imported US$1.6 billion of textile products from China, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and the amount was US$2.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Although the import value continued to grow in January, this should largely be attributed to the fact that the export release effect will not last long after the removal of restricted category quotas in the short term. The decline in imports from China reflects the seriousness of the overall shortfall in U.S. import demand. It is expected that 2009 will be a very difficult year for the export of Chinese textile products to the United States. If the U.S. economy cannot recover in the short term, it will be very difficult for China’s textile products exported to the United States to achieve export growth under the current market environment and trade policy environment. Exports to the United States will be very difficult. The amount may show negative growth for the first time in recent years.
(4) Textile trade protectionism may make a comeback
At the end of 2008, the three-year Sino-US textile bilateral agreement expired and terminated, and China’s textile exports to the United States resumed free import again. However, as the U.S. economic recession continues to deepen and the Democratic Party dominates the government and Congress, U.S. trade protectionism continues to rise. As a traditional key area of U.S. trade protection, textiles are facing increasing risks of trade restrictions. Driven by the domestic textile industry in the United States, Rangel, chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, instructed the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) to start monitoring Chinese textile imports in October 2008. During the election, Obama promised to the textile industry that he would consider using 421 special protection. The possibility of setting limits on terms; the 2009 U.S. economic stimulus plan included a “Buy American” clause for textiles and clothing; Congress’s fiscal year 2009 comprehensive appropriation bill instructs the U.S. government to strengthen textile trade remedy measures and monitor Chinese imports. The above-mentioned measures have sent out a strong signal that U.S. textile trade protectionism is likely to return. In the first two months of 2009, the rapid growth of exports to the United States of some products subject to restrictions in 2008 has attracted the attention of the United States. It is likely to become an excuse for the United States to restart restrictive measures. It deserves the Chinese government departments, industry organizations, and the industry to attach great importance to and respond appropriately.
Appendix 1: U.S. textile product classification import statistics in 2008
Appendix 2: U.S. restrictions on textile imports from China in 2008
2008 Situation Schedule.xls
